**Forecast models indicate overnight lows in Beijing on August 25, 2026, will likely settle near 23–26 °C amid humid, stormy conditions.** Multiple sources, including the China Meteorological Administration and international models, project a low around 23–25 °C, with elevated nighttime humidity (often 85–95%) and 60–80% chances of thunderstorms or rain limiting radiative cooling. This keeps surface temperatures higher than on clear nights, as cloud cover traps heat and moist air reduces temperature drops. The closely matched market probabilities (24 °C at 33%, 25 °C at 30%, 26 °C at 27%) reflect this narrow ensemble spread. Key differentiating factors include exact storm timing, wind shifts (light southerly to northwesterly), and any brief clearing that could allow slightly more cooling toward 23 °C versus persistent overcast holding minima near 25–26 °C. Historical August averages (~20.6 °C low) are lower, but the current warm, moist pattern—typical of late-summer conditions with above-normal precipitation—supports the higher range. New model runs or satellite updates on cloud trends over the next 24–48 hours could refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on August 25?
24°C 35%
25°C 30%
26°C 27%
23°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
2%
22°C
3%
23°C
23%
24°C
35%
25°C
30%
26°C
27%
27°C
10%
28°C
16%
29°C
1%
30°C
3%
31°C or higher
2%
24°C 35%
25°C 30%
26°C 27%
23°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
$69 Vol.
2%
22°C
$76 Vol.
3%
23°C
$0 Vol.
23%
24°C
$0 Vol.
35%
25°C
$0 Vol.
30%
26°C
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$0 Vol.
10%
28°C
$103 Vol.
16%
29°C
$11 Vol.
1%
30°C
$5 Vol.
3%
31°C or higher
$247 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate overnight lows in Beijing on August 25, 2026, will likely settle near 23–26 °C amid humid, stormy conditions.** Multiple sources, including the China Meteorological Administration and international models, project a low around 23–25 °C, with elevated nighttime humidity (often 85–95%) and 60–80% chances of thunderstorms or rain limiting radiative cooling. This keeps surface temperatures higher than on clear nights, as cloud cover traps heat and moist air reduces temperature drops.
The closely matched market probabilities (24 °C at 33%, 25 °C at 30%, 26 °C at 27%) reflect this narrow ensemble spread. Key differentiating factors include exact storm timing, wind shifts (light southerly to northwesterly), and any brief clearing that could allow slightly more cooling toward 23 °C versus persistent overcast holding minima near 25–26 °C. Historical August averages (~20.6 °C low) are lower, but the current warm, moist pattern—typical of late-summer conditions with above-normal precipitation—supports the higher range. New model runs or satellite updates on cloud trends over the next 24–48 hours could refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$511End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate overnight lows in Beijing on August 25, 2026, will likely settle near 23–26 °C amid humid, stormy conditions.** Multiple sources, including the China Meteorological Administration and international models, project a low around 23–25 °C, with elevated nighttime humidity (often 85–95%) and 60–80% chances of thunderstorms or rain limiting radiative cooling. This keeps surface temperatures higher than on clear nights, as cloud cover traps heat and moist air reduces temperature drops.
The closely matched market probabilities (24 °C at 33%, 25 °C at 30%, 26 °C at 27%) reflect this narrow ensemble spread. Key differentiating factors include exact storm timing, wind shifts (light southerly to northwesterly), and any brief clearing that could allow slightly more cooling toward 23 °C versus persistent overcast holding minima near 25–26 °C. Historical August averages (~20.6 °C low) are lower, but the current warm, moist pattern—typical of late-summer conditions with above-normal precipitation—supports the higher range. New model runs or satellite updates on cloud trends over the next 24–48 hours could refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$511End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models indicate overnight lows in Beijing on August 25, 2026, will likely settle near 23–26 °C amid humid, stormy conditions.** Multiple sources, including the China Meteorological Administration and international models, project a low around 23–25 °C, with elevated nighttime humidity (often 85–95%) and 60–80% chances of thunderstorms or rain limiting radiative cooling. This keeps surface temperatures higher than on clear nights, as cloud cover traps heat and moist air reduces temperature drops. The closely matched market probabilities (24 °C at 33%, 25 °C at 30%, 26 °C at 27%) reflect this narrow ensemble spread. Key differentiating factors include exact storm timing, wind shifts (light southerly to northwesterly), and any brief clearing that could allow slightly more cooling toward 23 °C versus persistent overcast holding minima near 25–26 °C. Historical August averages (~20.6 °C low) are lower, but the current warm, moist pattern—typical of late-summer conditions with above-normal precipitation—supports the higher range. New model runs or satellite updates on cloud trends over the next 24–48 hours could refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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