Forecast models from the Met Office and BBC Weather indicate a daytime high of 32–33°C for Madrid on August 23, aligning with the market's strong consensus around 33°C. Late-summer atmospheric patterns, including persistent high pressure and limited cloud cover, support this range without significant cooling from Atlantic fronts or convective activity. Historical August averages near 30–32°C provide context, while current observational trends show minimal deviation from seasonal norms. Updated numerical weather prediction runs reinforce limited upside potential beyond 34°C given stable steering winds and moderate humidity levels, keeping higher thresholds at negligible implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 23?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 23?
34°C 99.1%
35°C <1%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
$40,174 Vol.
$40,174 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
99%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 99.1%
35°C <1%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
$40,174 Vol.
$40,174 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
29°C or below
$1,816 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$413 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$2,467 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$9,426 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$6,680 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$8,641 Vol.
99%
35°C
$5,355 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$4,123 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$663 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$327 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$263 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Met Office and BBC Weather indicate a daytime high of 32–33°C for Madrid on August 23, aligning with the market's strong consensus around 33°C. Late-summer atmospheric patterns, including persistent high pressure and limited cloud cover, support this range without significant cooling from Atlantic fronts or convective activity. Historical August averages near 30–32°C provide context, while current observational trends show minimal deviation from seasonal norms. Updated numerical weather prediction runs reinforce limited upside potential beyond 34°C given stable steering winds and moderate humidity levels, keeping higher thresholds at negligible implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$40,174End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Met Office and BBC Weather indicate a daytime high of 32–33°C for Madrid on August 23, aligning with the market's strong consensus around 33°C. Late-summer atmospheric patterns, including persistent high pressure and limited cloud cover, support this range without significant cooling from Atlantic fronts or convective activity. Historical August averages near 30–32°C provide context, while current observational trends show minimal deviation from seasonal norms. Updated numerical weather prediction runs reinforce limited upside potential beyond 34°C given stable steering winds and moderate humidity levels, keeping higher thresholds at negligible implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40,174End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the Met Office and BBC Weather indicate a daytime high of 32–33°C for Madrid on August 23, aligning with the market's strong consensus around 33°C. Late-summer atmospheric patterns, including persistent high pressure and limited cloud cover, support this range without significant cooling from Atlantic fronts or convective activity. Historical August averages near 30–32°C provide context, while current observational trends show minimal deviation from seasonal norms. Updated numerical weather prediction runs reinforce limited upside potential beyond 34°C given stable steering winds and moderate humidity levels, keeping higher thresholds at negligible implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions