Recent forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather indicate a minimum temperature near 19–21°C for Madrid on August 23 under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, consistent with late-summer climatology where radiative cooling overnight is moderated by residual heat from daytime highs around 32–33°C. This strong model consensus and lack of incoming frontal systems underpin the 99% market-implied probability for 21°C as the official low. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected surge of cooler Atlantic air or denser cloud cover that suppresses the low by 2–3°C, outcomes not supported by current ensemble guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 23?
21°C 99.0%
20°C <1%
17°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
$4,399 Vol.
$4,399 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
99%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
21°C 99.0%
20°C <1%
17°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
$4,399 Vol.
$4,399 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
17°C or below
$250 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$230 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$440 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$326 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$383 Vol.
99%
22°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$297 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$413 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,156 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$167 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$621 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather indicate a minimum temperature near 19–21°C for Madrid on August 23 under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, consistent with late-summer climatology where radiative cooling overnight is moderated by residual heat from daytime highs around 32–33°C. This strong model consensus and lack of incoming frontal systems underpin the 99% market-implied probability for 21°C as the official low. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected surge of cooler Atlantic air or denser cloud cover that suppresses the low by 2–3°C, outcomes not supported by current ensemble guidance.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$4,399End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather indicate a minimum temperature near 19–21°C for Madrid on August 23 under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, consistent with late-summer climatology where radiative cooling overnight is moderated by residual heat from daytime highs around 32–33°C. This strong model consensus and lack of incoming frontal systems underpin the 99% market-implied probability for 21°C as the official low. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected surge of cooler Atlantic air or denser cloud cover that suppresses the low by 2–3°C, outcomes not supported by current ensemble guidance.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,399End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather indicate a minimum temperature near 19–21°C for Madrid on August 23 under clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, consistent with late-summer climatology where radiative cooling overnight is moderated by residual heat from daytime highs around 32–33°C. This strong model consensus and lack of incoming frontal systems underpin the 99% market-implied probability for 21°C as the official low. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected surge of cooler Atlantic air or denser cloud cover that suppresses the low by 2–3°C, outcomes not supported by current ensemble guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions