Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance for Central Park point to a daily maximum in the low 80s, driving the 82–83 °F bin to a 49.5% market-implied probability as the consensus outcome. Northeast flow, partly cloudy skies, and dew points near 65 °F are limiting stronger afternoon heating, while the absence of a cold front or significant cloud cover keeps temperatures near or slightly below the 1991–2020 August average high of 83 °F. Shorter-range updates from NOAA and private models show tight clustering between 80–84 °F, explaining the combined 93.5% probability on the three leading bins and the steep drop-off beyond 85 °F. Any late-day clearing or model shift could nudge the outcome one bin higher before resolution tonight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 23?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 23?
82-83°F 42%
80-81°F 27%
84-85°F 20%
78-79°F 8%
$54,356 Vol.
$54,356 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
8%
80-81°F
27%
82-83°F
42%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 42%
80-81°F 27%
84-85°F 20%
78-79°F 8%
$54,356 Vol.
$54,356 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
73°F or below
$753 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$3,251 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$11,358 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$6,002 Vol.
8%
80-81°F
$6,264 Vol.
27%
82-83°F
$11,919 Vol.
42%
84-85°F
$6,123 Vol.
20%
86-87°F
$5,414 Vol.
3%
88-89°F
$2,279 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$353 Vol.
<1%
92°F or higher
$639 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance for Central Park point to a daily maximum in the low 80s, driving the 82–83 °F bin to a 49.5% market-implied probability as the consensus outcome. Northeast flow, partly cloudy skies, and dew points near 65 °F are limiting stronger afternoon heating, while the absence of a cold front or significant cloud cover keeps temperatures near or slightly below the 1991–2020 August average high of 83 °F. Shorter-range updates from NOAA and private models show tight clustering between 80–84 °F, explaining the combined 93.5% probability on the three leading bins and the steep drop-off beyond 85 °F. Any late-day clearing or model shift could nudge the outcome one bin higher before resolution tonight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$54,356End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance for Central Park point to a daily maximum in the low 80s, driving the 82–83 °F bin to a 49.5% market-implied probability as the consensus outcome. Northeast flow, partly cloudy skies, and dew points near 65 °F are limiting stronger afternoon heating, while the absence of a cold front or significant cloud cover keeps temperatures near or slightly below the 1991–2020 August average high of 83 °F. Shorter-range updates from NOAA and private models show tight clustering between 80–84 °F, explaining the combined 93.5% probability on the three leading bins and the steep drop-off beyond 85 °F. Any late-day clearing or model shift could nudge the outcome one bin higher before resolution tonight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$54,356End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance for Central Park point to a daily maximum in the low 80s, driving the 82–83 °F bin to a 49.5% market-implied probability as the consensus outcome. Northeast flow, partly cloudy skies, and dew points near 65 °F are limiting stronger afternoon heating, while the absence of a cold front or significant cloud cover keeps temperatures near or slightly below the 1991–2020 August average high of 83 °F. Shorter-range updates from NOAA and private models show tight clustering between 80–84 °F, explaining the combined 93.5% probability on the three leading bins and the steep drop-off beyond 85 °F. Any late-day clearing or model shift could nudge the outcome one bin higher before resolution tonight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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