National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to a minimum temperature of 68–69°F in New York City on August 23, 2026, matching the market's near-certain 99.7% implied probability for that range. This aligns with late-August climatology, where overnight lows typically fall between 66–70°F under high-pressure dominance and light winds that restrict radiative cooling. Official observations from Central Park and surrounding stations, combined with stable short-range model guidance showing little deviation, reinforce trader confidence. A shift to cooler bins would require unexpected clear skies, calmer conditions, or stronger cold-air advection, while warmer outcomes would need enhanced southerly flow or greater urban heat-island effects than currently projected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 23?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 23?
68-69°F 99.6%
66-67°F <1%
59°F or below <1%
60-61°F <1%
$7,387 Vol.
$7,387 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
100%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
68-69°F 99.6%
66-67°F <1%
59°F or below <1%
60-61°F <1%
$7,387 Vol.
$7,387 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
59°F or below
$75 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$617 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$721 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$516 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$336 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$1,197 Vol.
100%
70-71°F
$1,909 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$728 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$511 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$496 Vol.
<1%
78°F or higher
$280 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to a minimum temperature of 68–69°F in New York City on August 23, 2026, matching the market's near-certain 99.7% implied probability for that range. This aligns with late-August climatology, where overnight lows typically fall between 66–70°F under high-pressure dominance and light winds that restrict radiative cooling. Official observations from Central Park and surrounding stations, combined with stable short-range model guidance showing little deviation, reinforce trader confidence. A shift to cooler bins would require unexpected clear skies, calmer conditions, or stronger cold-air advection, while warmer outcomes would need enhanced southerly flow or greater urban heat-island effects than currently projected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$7,387End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to a minimum temperature of 68–69°F in New York City on August 23, 2026, matching the market's near-certain 99.7% implied probability for that range. This aligns with late-August climatology, where overnight lows typically fall between 66–70°F under high-pressure dominance and light winds that restrict radiative cooling. Official observations from Central Park and surrounding stations, combined with stable short-range model guidance showing little deviation, reinforce trader confidence. A shift to cooler bins would require unexpected clear skies, calmer conditions, or stronger cold-air advection, while warmer outcomes would need enhanced southerly flow or greater urban heat-island effects than currently projected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,387End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to a minimum temperature of 68–69°F in New York City on August 23, 2026, matching the market's near-certain 99.7% implied probability for that range. This aligns with late-August climatology, where overnight lows typically fall between 66–70°F under high-pressure dominance and light winds that restrict radiative cooling. Official observations from Central Park and surrounding stations, combined with stable short-range model guidance showing little deviation, reinforce trader confidence. A shift to cooler bins would require unexpected clear skies, calmer conditions, or stronger cold-air advection, while warmer outcomes would need enhanced southerly flow or greater urban heat-island effects than currently projected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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