**Strong high-pressure ridge and heat dome over the Southern Plains position Dallas for a forecast high near 107°F on August 23, 2026, driving the market's heavy weighting toward the 106-107°F bin at 52% implied probability.** National Weather Service point forecasts and area discussions from the Fort Worth office consistently call for sunny skies, southwest winds of 5-10 mph, and a maximum around 107°F, with heat indices reaching 109°F amid the ongoing extreme heat warning. This aligns with the current heat wave, where August 22 reached 105°F (tying the 1980 record) under similar conditions. Model consensus and official guidance show limited variability, though isolated morning showers offered negligible cooling and slight upward risks support the secondary 108-109°F probability at 16.5%. Traders appear to anchor on the NWS consensus while discounting lower or much higher outcomes given the stable ridge and climatological context of late-August heat in North Texas.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on August 23?
Highest temperature in Dallas on August 23?
106-107°F 59%
104-105°F 27%
108-109°F 19%
102-103°F <1%
$39,376 Vol.
$39,376 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
101°F or below
1%
102-103°F
1%
104-105°F
27%
106-107°F
54%
108-109°F
26%
110-111°F
1%
112-113°F
1%
114-115°F
<1%
116-117°F
<1%
118-119°F
<1%
120°F or higher
<1%
106-107°F 59%
104-105°F 27%
108-109°F 19%
102-103°F <1%
$39,376 Vol.
$39,376 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
101°F or below
$3,765 Vol.
1%
102-103°F
$6,105 Vol.
1%
104-105°F
$5,158 Vol.
27%
106-107°F
$10,188 Vol.
54%
108-109°F
$7,600 Vol.
26%
110-111°F
$3,138 Vol.
1%
112-113°F
$1,678 Vol.
1%
114-115°F
$405 Vol.
<1%
116-117°F
$357 Vol.
<1%
118-119°F
$482 Vol.
<1%
120°F or higher
$500 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong high-pressure ridge and heat dome over the Southern Plains position Dallas for a forecast high near 107°F on August 23, 2026, driving the market's heavy weighting toward the 106-107°F bin at 52% implied probability.**
National Weather Service point forecasts and area discussions from the Fort Worth office consistently call for sunny skies, southwest winds of 5-10 mph, and a maximum around 107°F, with heat indices reaching 109°F amid the ongoing extreme heat warning. This aligns with the current heat wave, where August 22 reached 105°F (tying the 1980 record) under similar conditions. Model consensus and official guidance show limited variability, though isolated morning showers offered negligible cooling and slight upward risks support the secondary 108-109°F probability at 16.5%. Traders appear to anchor on the NWS consensus while discounting lower or much higher outcomes given the stable ridge and climatological context of late-August heat in North Texas.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$39,376End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Strong high-pressure ridge and heat dome over the Southern Plains position Dallas for a forecast high near 107°F on August 23, 2026, driving the market's heavy weighting toward the 106-107°F bin at 52% implied probability.**
National Weather Service point forecasts and area discussions from the Fort Worth office consistently call for sunny skies, southwest winds of 5-10 mph, and a maximum around 107°F, with heat indices reaching 109°F amid the ongoing extreme heat warning. This aligns with the current heat wave, where August 22 reached 105°F (tying the 1980 record) under similar conditions. Model consensus and official guidance show limited variability, though isolated morning showers offered negligible cooling and slight upward risks support the secondary 108-109°F probability at 16.5%. Traders appear to anchor on the NWS consensus while discounting lower or much higher outcomes given the stable ridge and climatological context of late-August heat in North Texas.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$39,376End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong high-pressure ridge and heat dome over the Southern Plains position Dallas for a forecast high near 107°F on August 23, 2026, driving the market's heavy weighting toward the 106-107°F bin at 52% implied probability.** National Weather Service point forecasts and area discussions from the Fort Worth office consistently call for sunny skies, southwest winds of 5-10 mph, and a maximum around 107°F, with heat indices reaching 109°F amid the ongoing extreme heat warning. This aligns with the current heat wave, where August 22 reached 105°F (tying the 1980 record) under similar conditions. Model consensus and official guidance show limited variability, though isolated morning showers offered negligible cooling and slight upward risks support the secondary 108-109°F probability at 16.5%. Traders appear to anchor on the NWS consensus while discounting lower or much higher outcomes given the stable ridge and climatological context of late-August heat in North Texas.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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