Robust NASA planetary defense systems, including the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies' Sentry impact-monitoring platform and ongoing surveys by observatories like Pan-STARRS, have identified no sizable near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for 2026. Recent 2026 flybys of asteroids such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 CU1 were tracked and confirmed safe well in advance, reinforcing trader confidence in "No." Historical data shows 10kt-scale airbursts occur infrequently, and improved detection capabilities have further reduced the chance of undetected threats. With no credible catalysts like new high-risk detections or orbital shifts reported, the 88.5% market-implied probability for "No" reflects this consensus backed by continuous real-time observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
12% chance
$200,090 Vol.
$200,090 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
12% chance
$200,090 Vol.
$200,090 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Robust NASA planetary defense systems, including the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies' Sentry impact-monitoring platform and ongoing surveys by observatories like Pan-STARRS, have identified no sizable near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for 2026. Recent 2026 flybys of asteroids such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 CU1 were tracked and confirmed safe well in advance, reinforcing trader confidence in "No." Historical data shows 10kt-scale airbursts occur infrequently, and improved detection capabilities have further reduced the chance of undetected threats. With no credible catalysts like new high-risk detections or orbital shifts reported, the 88.5% market-implied probability for "No" reflects this consensus backed by continuous real-time observations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$200,090End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Robust NASA planetary defense systems, including the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies' Sentry impact-monitoring platform and ongoing surveys by observatories like Pan-STARRS, have identified no sizable near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for 2026. Recent 2026 flybys of asteroids such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 CU1 were tracked and confirmed safe well in advance, reinforcing trader confidence in "No." Historical data shows 10kt-scale airbursts occur infrequently, and improved detection capabilities have further reduced the chance of undetected threats. With no credible catalysts like new high-risk detections or orbital shifts reported, the 88.5% market-implied probability for "No" reflects this consensus backed by continuous real-time observations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$200,090End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust NASA planetary defense systems, including the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies' Sentry impact-monitoring platform and ongoing surveys by observatories like Pan-STARRS, have identified no sizable near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for 2026. Recent 2026 flybys of asteroids such as 2026 JH2 and 2026 CU1 were tracked and confirmed safe well in advance, reinforcing trader confidence in "No." Historical data shows 10kt-scale airbursts occur infrequently, and improved detection capabilities have further reduced the chance of undetected threats. With no credible catalysts like new high-risk detections or orbital shifts reported, the 88.5% market-implied probability for "No" reflects this consensus backed by continuous real-time observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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