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icon for Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...
Climate & Science·Screwworm

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...

icon for Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...
Climate & Science·Screwworm

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...

NEW
Polymarket

$4,714 Vol.

Polymarket
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August 30

$1,544 Vol.

18%

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October 31

$501 Vol.

58%

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December 31

$534 Vol.

67%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.**Current USDA APHIS surveillance data through mid-August 2026 show all 44 livestock detections confined to Texas counties, with the single New Mexico case limited to a dog.** The outbreak, linked to northward spread from Mexico since late 2024, prompted sterile fly releases, 20-km infested zones, movement controls, and temporary southern port closures. No confirmed livestock cases have occurred outside Texas, supporting trader consensus around containment via the sterile insect technique and active trapping across border states. Key variables include ongoing model runs for fly dispersal efficacy, any new detections reported on screwworm.gov dashboards, and surveillance updates from Texas and New Mexico partners that could shift odds if cases appear in adjacent states’ livestock.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$4,714
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.**Current USDA APHIS surveillance data through mid-August 2026 show all 44 livestock detections confined to Texas counties, with the single New Mexico case limited to a dog.** The outbreak, linked to northward spread from Mexico since late 2024, prompted sterile fly releases, 20-km infested zones, movement controls, and temporary southern port closures. No confirmed livestock cases have occurred outside Texas, supporting trader consensus around containment via the sterile insect technique and active trapping across border states. Key variables include ongoing model runs for fly dispersal efficacy, any new detections reported on screwworm.gov dashboards, and surveillance updates from Texas and New Mexico partners that could shift odds if cases appear in adjacent states’ livestock.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$4,714
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by..." is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 67%, followed by "October 31" at 58%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by..." is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by..." is "December 31" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "October 31" at 58%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by..." define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.