**The unusually quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, marked by strong El Niño-driven wind shear, dry air, and Saharan dust, has produced only three short-lived tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal) with no hurricanes as of August 23.** This suppression has delayed the first hurricane well past the climatological average of early-to-mid August, keeping accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) at multi-decade lows. With the peak period approaching and models showing limited near-term development through at least August 25, traders assign Dolly—the next name on the official list—the highest implied probability (~50.5%) of becoming the season’s first hurricane. Edouard follows at ~25.5% as the subsequent candidate if conditions remain hostile into early September. Later names such as Fay and Gonzalo trade lower, reflecting the expectation that any early intensification window will likely involve one of the next two systems before broader seasonal activity resumes. Official National Hurricane Center guidance and seasonal outlooks emphasizing below-normal activity underpin this ordering, with resolution hinging on the first system to reach sustained 64-knot winds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
Dolly 51%
Edouard 26%
Fay 11%
Paulette 4.8%
$10,660 Vol.
$10,660 Vol.
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
1%
Dolly
51%
Edouard
26%
Fay
11%
Gonzalo
10%
Hanna
2%
Isaias
4%
Josephine
1%
Kyle
<1%
Leah
<1%
Marco
<1%
Nana
<1%
Omar
2%
Paulette
5%
Rene
1%
Sally
1%
Teddy
2%
Vicky
1%
Wilfred
2%
Other
4%
Dolly 51%
Edouard 26%
Fay 11%
Paulette 4.8%
$10,660 Vol.
$10,660 Vol.
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
$1,742 Vol.
1%
Dolly
$1,393 Vol.
51%
Edouard
$1,871 Vol.
26%
Fay
$1,119 Vol.
11%
Gonzalo
$761 Vol.
10%
Hanna
$173 Vol.
2%
Isaias
$545 Vol.
4%
Josephine
$250 Vol.
1%
Kyle
$289 Vol.
<1%
Leah
$258 Vol.
<1%
Marco
$386 Vol.
<1%
Nana
$246 Vol.
<1%
Omar
$142 Vol.
2%
Paulette
$266 Vol.
5%
Rene
$138 Vol.
1%
Sally
$326 Vol.
1%
Teddy
$138 Vol.
2%
Vicky
$165 Vol.
1%
Wilfred
$193 Vol.
2%
Other
$258 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **The unusually quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, marked by strong El Niño-driven wind shear, dry air, and Saharan dust, has produced only three short-lived tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal) with no hurricanes as of August 23.**
This suppression has delayed the first hurricane well past the climatological average of early-to-mid August, keeping accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) at multi-decade lows. With the peak period approaching and models showing limited near-term development through at least August 25, traders assign Dolly—the next name on the official list—the highest implied probability (~50.5%) of becoming the season’s first hurricane. Edouard follows at ~25.5% as the subsequent candidate if conditions remain hostile into early September. Later names such as Fay and Gonzalo trade lower, reflecting the expectation that any early intensification window will likely involve one of the next two systems before broader seasonal activity resumes. Official National Hurricane Center guidance and seasonal outlooks emphasizing below-normal activity underpin this ordering, with resolution hinging on the first system to reach sustained 64-knot winds.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Volume
$10,660End Date
Dec 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **The unusually quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, marked by strong El Niño-driven wind shear, dry air, and Saharan dust, has produced only three short-lived tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal) with no hurricanes as of August 23.**
This suppression has delayed the first hurricane well past the climatological average of early-to-mid August, keeping accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) at multi-decade lows. With the peak period approaching and models showing limited near-term development through at least August 25, traders assign Dolly—the next name on the official list—the highest implied probability (~50.5%) of becoming the season’s first hurricane. Edouard follows at ~25.5% as the subsequent candidate if conditions remain hostile into early September. Later names such as Fay and Gonzalo trade lower, reflecting the expectation that any early intensification window will likely involve one of the next two systems before broader seasonal activity resumes. Official National Hurricane Center guidance and seasonal outlooks emphasizing below-normal activity underpin this ordering, with resolution hinging on the first system to reach sustained 64-knot winds.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$10,660End Date
Dec 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The unusually quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, marked by strong El Niño-driven wind shear, dry air, and Saharan dust, has produced only three short-lived tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal) with no hurricanes as of August 23.** This suppression has delayed the first hurricane well past the climatological average of early-to-mid August, keeping accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) at multi-decade lows. With the peak period approaching and models showing limited near-term development through at least August 25, traders assign Dolly—the next name on the official list—the highest implied probability (~50.5%) of becoming the season’s first hurricane. Edouard follows at ~25.5% as the subsequent candidate if conditions remain hostile into early September. Later names such as Fay and Gonzalo trade lower, reflecting the expectation that any early intensification window will likely involve one of the next two systems before broader seasonal activity resumes. Official National Hurricane Center guidance and seasonal outlooks emphasizing below-normal activity underpin this ordering, with resolution hinging on the first system to reach sustained 64-knot winds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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