Traders have converged on a 32°C outcome at near-certainty because official forecasts from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and international models project a daytime maximum of precisely that value for Chengdu on August 23. Recent station data from the prior days, including a 32°C peak on August 21, align with late-August climatology of 30–34°C highs amid humid subtropical conditions, with minimal model spread supporting this level. Implied probabilities reflect real-capital consensus on these atmospheric patterns, including steering flows and limited convective cooling. A realistic challenge would require rapid afternoon intensification from reduced cloud cover or an unforecast heat surge pushing readings to 33°C or higher, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 23?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 23?
32°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$76,295 Vol.
$76,295 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$76,295 Vol.
$76,295 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
27°C or below
$5,280 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,965 Vol.
No
29°C
$5,523 Vol.
No
30°C
$12,995 Vol.
No
31°C
$9,219 Vol.
No
32°C
$9,112 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$12,256 Vol.
No
34°C
$7,025 Vol.
No
35°C
$4,019 Vol.
No
36°C
$4,670 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$3,232 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on a 32°C outcome at near-certainty because official forecasts from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and international models project a daytime maximum of precisely that value for Chengdu on August 23. Recent station data from the prior days, including a 32°C peak on August 21, align with late-August climatology of 30–34°C highs amid humid subtropical conditions, with minimal model spread supporting this level. Implied probabilities reflect real-capital consensus on these atmospheric patterns, including steering flows and limited convective cooling. A realistic challenge would require rapid afternoon intensification from reduced cloud cover or an unforecast heat surge pushing readings to 33°C or higher, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$76,295End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on a 32°C outcome at near-certainty because official forecasts from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and international models project a daytime maximum of precisely that value for Chengdu on August 23. Recent station data from the prior days, including a 32°C peak on August 21, align with late-August climatology of 30–34°C highs amid humid subtropical conditions, with minimal model spread supporting this level. Implied probabilities reflect real-capital consensus on these atmospheric patterns, including steering flows and limited convective cooling. A realistic challenge would require rapid afternoon intensification from reduced cloud cover or an unforecast heat surge pushing readings to 33°C or higher, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$76,295End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders have converged on a 32°C outcome at near-certainty because official forecasts from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and international models project a daytime maximum of precisely that value for Chengdu on August 23. Recent station data from the prior days, including a 32°C peak on August 21, align with late-August climatology of 30–34°C highs amid humid subtropical conditions, with minimal model spread supporting this level. Implied probabilities reflect real-capital consensus on these atmospheric patterns, including steering flows and limited convective cooling. A realistic challenge would require rapid afternoon intensification from reduced cloud cover or an unforecast heat surge pushing readings to 33°C or higher, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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