Short-range forecast uncertainty from global and regional models is driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 31–33 °C for Guangzhou’s maximum temperature on August 25. In this subtropical monsoon climate, afternoon peak temperatures hinge on the precise timing and coverage of convective clouds or thunderstorms, which can reduce solar insolation by several degrees, versus clearer periods that allow greater surface heating. Advection of warmer air from the South China Sea and the strength of the urban heat island effect further differentiate outcomes between 30 °C and 34 °C. With only 48 hours until resolution, traders are weighting the latest ensemble runs and China Meteorological Administration guidance, where small shifts in precipitation timing or boundary-layer moisture can readily move the most likely bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on August 25?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 25?
32°C 28%
31°C 24%
33°C 18%
30°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
2%
29°C
7%
30°C
14%
31°C
24%
32°C
28%
33°C
18%
34°C
7%
35°C or higher
4%
32°C 28%
31°C 24%
33°C 18%
30°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
25°C or below
$114 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$227 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$560 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$535 Vol.
2%
29°C
$170 Vol.
7%
30°C
$3 Vol.
14%
31°C
$25 Vol.
24%
32°C
$65 Vol.
28%
33°C
$60 Vol.
18%
34°C
$22 Vol.
7%
35°C or higher
$44 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range forecast uncertainty from global and regional models is driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 31–33 °C for Guangzhou’s maximum temperature on August 25. In this subtropical monsoon climate, afternoon peak temperatures hinge on the precise timing and coverage of convective clouds or thunderstorms, which can reduce solar insolation by several degrees, versus clearer periods that allow greater surface heating. Advection of warmer air from the South China Sea and the strength of the urban heat island effect further differentiate outcomes between 30 °C and 34 °C. With only 48 hours until resolution, traders are weighting the latest ensemble runs and China Meteorological Administration guidance, where small shifts in precipitation timing or boundary-layer moisture can readily move the most likely bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$1,825End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range forecast uncertainty from global and regional models is driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 31–33 °C for Guangzhou’s maximum temperature on August 25. In this subtropical monsoon climate, afternoon peak temperatures hinge on the precise timing and coverage of convective clouds or thunderstorms, which can reduce solar insolation by several degrees, versus clearer periods that allow greater surface heating. Advection of warmer air from the South China Sea and the strength of the urban heat island effect further differentiate outcomes between 30 °C and 34 °C. With only 48 hours until resolution, traders are weighting the latest ensemble runs and China Meteorological Administration guidance, where small shifts in precipitation timing or boundary-layer moisture can readily move the most likely bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,825End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-range forecast uncertainty from global and regional models is driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 31–33 °C for Guangzhou’s maximum temperature on August 25. In this subtropical monsoon climate, afternoon peak temperatures hinge on the precise timing and coverage of convective clouds or thunderstorms, which can reduce solar insolation by several degrees, versus clearer periods that allow greater surface heating. Advection of warmer air from the South China Sea and the strength of the urban heat island effect further differentiate outcomes between 30 °C and 34 °C. With only 48 hours until resolution, traders are weighting the latest ensemble runs and China Meteorological Administration guidance, where small shifts in precipitation timing or boundary-layer moisture can readily move the most likely bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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