Recent forecast consensus from regional models points to limited nocturnal cooling in Guangzhou on August 25, with persistent cloud cover, high dew points near 26°C, and elevated humidity from monsoon influences and nearby tropical activity suppressing radiative heat loss. These conditions typically hold overnight lows several degrees above the 25.3°C climatological average for the date. Trader-implied probabilities cluster around 26–28°C and warmer bins, reflecting expectations that any brief clear spells will be insufficient for significant drops, while historical records show rare excursions below 23°C under similar patterns. Updated China Meteorological Administration guidance ahead of the date will provide the next key signal for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 25?
32°C or higher 83%
23°C 42%
31°C 38%
27°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
22°C or below
4%
23°C
42%
24°C
27%
25°C
25%
26°C
27%
27°C
28%
28°C
27%
29°C
27%
30°C
-
31°C
38%
32°C or higher
83%
32°C or higher 83%
23°C 42%
31°C 38%
27°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
22°C or below
$79 Vol.
4%
23°C
$63 Vol.
42%
24°C
$0 Vol.
27%
25°C
$0 Vol.
25%
26°C
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$0 Vol.
28%
28°C
$0 Vol.
27%
29°C
$0 Vol.
27%
30°C
$15 Vol.
-
31°C
$15 Vol.
38%
32°C or higher
$150 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from regional models points to limited nocturnal cooling in Guangzhou on August 25, with persistent cloud cover, high dew points near 26°C, and elevated humidity from monsoon influences and nearby tropical activity suppressing radiative heat loss. These conditions typically hold overnight lows several degrees above the 25.3°C climatological average for the date. Trader-implied probabilities cluster around 26–28°C and warmer bins, reflecting expectations that any brief clear spells will be insufficient for significant drops, while historical records show rare excursions below 23°C under similar patterns. Updated China Meteorological Administration guidance ahead of the date will provide the next key signal for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$322End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from regional models points to limited nocturnal cooling in Guangzhou on August 25, with persistent cloud cover, high dew points near 26°C, and elevated humidity from monsoon influences and nearby tropical activity suppressing radiative heat loss. These conditions typically hold overnight lows several degrees above the 25.3°C climatological average for the date. Trader-implied probabilities cluster around 26–28°C and warmer bins, reflecting expectations that any brief clear spells will be insufficient for significant drops, while historical records show rare excursions below 23°C under similar patterns. Updated China Meteorological Administration guidance ahead of the date will provide the next key signal for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$322End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from regional models points to limited nocturnal cooling in Guangzhou on August 25, with persistent cloud cover, high dew points near 26°C, and elevated humidity from monsoon influences and nearby tropical activity suppressing radiative heat loss. These conditions typically hold overnight lows several degrees above the 25.3°C climatological average for the date. Trader-implied probabilities cluster around 26–28°C and warmer bins, reflecting expectations that any brief clear spells will be insufficient for significant drops, while historical records show rare excursions below 23°C under similar patterns. Updated China Meteorological Administration guidance ahead of the date will provide the next key signal for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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