The successful containment of the limited Andes hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship in spring 2026, with only 13 cases and three deaths confined to close-contact transmission aboard the vessel, underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Official CDC and WHO assessments confirm no sustained community spread occurred in the United States or elsewhere following 42-day quarantines and international contact tracing, consistent with hantavirus pulmonary syndrome's typical rodent-borne transmission patterns and the Andes strain's rare, inefficient person-to-person mode. Argentina reports 102 seasonal cases through August, mostly localized in the NOA and Centro regions without evidence of exponential growth. Ongoing surveillance by agencies like the CDC continues to show very low global risk, though new rodent spillover events or undetected clusters could theoretically alter trajectories before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
4% chance
$17,905,895 Vol.
$17,905,895 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
4% chance
$17,905,895 Vol.
$17,905,895 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The successful containment of the limited Andes hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship in spring 2026, with only 13 cases and three deaths confined to close-contact transmission aboard the vessel, underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Official CDC and WHO assessments confirm no sustained community spread occurred in the United States or elsewhere following 42-day quarantines and international contact tracing, consistent with hantavirus pulmonary syndrome's typical rodent-borne transmission patterns and the Andes strain's rare, inefficient person-to-person mode. Argentina reports 102 seasonal cases through August, mostly localized in the NOA and Centro regions without evidence of exponential growth. Ongoing surveillance by agencies like the CDC continues to show very low global risk, though new rodent spillover events or undetected clusters could theoretically alter trajectories before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volume
$17,905,895End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The successful containment of the limited Andes hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship in spring 2026, with only 13 cases and three deaths confined to close-contact transmission aboard the vessel, underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Official CDC and WHO assessments confirm no sustained community spread occurred in the United States or elsewhere following 42-day quarantines and international contact tracing, consistent with hantavirus pulmonary syndrome's typical rodent-borne transmission patterns and the Andes strain's rare, inefficient person-to-person mode. Argentina reports 102 seasonal cases through August, mostly localized in the NOA and Centro regions without evidence of exponential growth. Ongoing surveillance by agencies like the CDC continues to show very low global risk, though new rodent spillover events or undetected clusters could theoretically alter trajectories before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$17,905,895End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The successful containment of the limited Andes hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship in spring 2026, with only 13 cases and three deaths confined to close-contact transmission aboard the vessel, underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Official CDC and WHO assessments confirm no sustained community spread occurred in the United States or elsewhere following 42-day quarantines and international contact tracing, consistent with hantavirus pulmonary syndrome's typical rodent-borne transmission patterns and the Andes strain's rare, inefficient person-to-person mode. Argentina reports 102 seasonal cases through August, mostly localized in the NOA and Centro regions without evidence of exponential growth. Ongoing surveillance by agencies like the CDC continues to show very low global risk, though new rodent spillover events or undetected clusters could theoretically alter trajectories before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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