Recent forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and the China Meteorological Administration indicate moderate rain and persistent cloud cover over Guangzhou on August 24, suppressing nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures clustered around 25–27°C amid typical August monsoon humidity. This aligns with the market's leading 27°C outcome at 31.5% implied probability, as overcast conditions and precipitation limit drops below seasonal norms of 25–26°C. Key variables include forecast model spread on rainfall timing and intensity, potential South China Sea disturbances that could enhance moisture and further mute cooling, and local urban heat island effects. The broad distribution across 24–28°C outcomes reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction for a subtropical environment, where small shifts in steering patterns or cloud thickness could tip the overnight low. China Meteorological Administration updates through the evening of August 23 will likely refine these market-implied odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 24?
24°C 37%
27°C 32%
26°C 21%
25°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
37%
25°C
20%
26°C
21%
27°C
32%
28°C
20%
29°C
18%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 37%
27°C 32%
26°C 21%
25°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
20°C or below
$151 Vol.
1%
21°C
$175 Vol.
1%
22°C
$145 Vol.
2%
23°C
$72 Vol.
1%
24°C
$15 Vol.
37%
25°C
$0 Vol.
20%
26°C
$0 Vol.
21%
27°C
$16 Vol.
32%
28°C
$0 Vol.
20%
29°C
$40 Vol.
18%
30°C or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and the China Meteorological Administration indicate moderate rain and persistent cloud cover over Guangzhou on August 24, suppressing nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures clustered around 25–27°C amid typical August monsoon humidity. This aligns with the market's leading 27°C outcome at 31.5% implied probability, as overcast conditions and precipitation limit drops below seasonal norms of 25–26°C. Key variables include forecast model spread on rainfall timing and intensity, potential South China Sea disturbances that could enhance moisture and further mute cooling, and local urban heat island effects. The broad distribution across 24–28°C outcomes reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction for a subtropical environment, where small shifts in steering patterns or cloud thickness could tip the overnight low. China Meteorological Administration updates through the evening of August 23 will likely refine these market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$620End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and the China Meteorological Administration indicate moderate rain and persistent cloud cover over Guangzhou on August 24, suppressing nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures clustered around 25–27°C amid typical August monsoon humidity. This aligns with the market's leading 27°C outcome at 31.5% implied probability, as overcast conditions and precipitation limit drops below seasonal norms of 25–26°C. Key variables include forecast model spread on rainfall timing and intensity, potential South China Sea disturbances that could enhance moisture and further mute cooling, and local urban heat island effects. The broad distribution across 24–28°C outcomes reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction for a subtropical environment, where small shifts in steering patterns or cloud thickness could tip the overnight low. China Meteorological Administration updates through the evening of August 23 will likely refine these market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$620End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and the China Meteorological Administration indicate moderate rain and persistent cloud cover over Guangzhou on August 24, suppressing nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures clustered around 25–27°C amid typical August monsoon humidity. This aligns with the market's leading 27°C outcome at 31.5% implied probability, as overcast conditions and precipitation limit drops below seasonal norms of 25–26°C. Key variables include forecast model spread on rainfall timing and intensity, potential South China Sea disturbances that could enhance moisture and further mute cooling, and local urban heat island effects. The broad distribution across 24–28°C outcomes reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction for a subtropical environment, where small shifts in steering patterns or cloud thickness could tip the overnight low. China Meteorological Administration updates through the evening of August 23 will likely refine these market-implied odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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