USDA-APHIS confirmed the first U.S. New World screwworm case in a Texas calf on June 3, 2026, following northward spread from Central America and Mexico where over 209,000 animal cases had already occurred. Texas and New Mexico issued state disaster and emergency declarations shortly after, while federal response emphasizes sterile insect technique releases, surveillance, and FDA emergency use authorizations for treatments issued in August. Current U.S. risk to animals and people remains low per CDC and USDA assessments, with no confirmed human cases domestically. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether ongoing containment will prevent escalation to a presidential national emergency declaration, with key variables including case counts, geographic spread into additional states, and any revised modeling from APHIS or NWS monitoring updates expected in coming weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedScrewworm National Emergency declared by...?
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
August 30
42%
October 31
41%
December 31
46%
$1,442 Vol.
August 30
$61 Vol.
42%
October 31
$0 Vol.
41%
December 31
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.USDA-APHIS confirmed the first U.S. New World screwworm case in a Texas calf on June 3, 2026, following northward spread from Central America and Mexico where over 209,000 animal cases had already occurred. Texas and New Mexico issued state disaster and emergency declarations shortly after, while federal response emphasizes sterile insect technique releases, surveillance, and FDA emergency use authorizations for treatments issued in August. Current U.S. risk to animals and people remains low per CDC and USDA assessments, with no confirmed human cases domestically. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether ongoing containment will prevent escalation to a presidential national emergency declaration, with key variables including case counts, geographic spread into additional states, and any revised modeling from APHIS or NWS monitoring updates expected in coming weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Volume
$1,442End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.USDA-APHIS confirmed the first U.S. New World screwworm case in a Texas calf on June 3, 2026, following northward spread from Central America and Mexico where over 209,000 animal cases had already occurred. Texas and New Mexico issued state disaster and emergency declarations shortly after, while federal response emphasizes sterile insect technique releases, surveillance, and FDA emergency use authorizations for treatments issued in August. Current U.S. risk to animals and people remains low per CDC and USDA assessments, with no confirmed human cases domestically. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether ongoing containment will prevent escalation to a presidential national emergency declaration, with key variables including case counts, geographic spread into additional states, and any revised modeling from APHIS or NWS monitoring updates expected in coming weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,442End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...USDA-APHIS confirmed the first U.S. New World screwworm case in a Texas calf on June 3, 2026, following northward spread from Central America and Mexico where over 209,000 animal cases had already occurred. Texas and New Mexico issued state disaster and emergency declarations shortly after, while federal response emphasizes sterile insect technique releases, surveillance, and FDA emergency use authorizations for treatments issued in August. Current U.S. risk to animals and people remains low per CDC and USDA assessments, with no confirmed human cases domestically. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether ongoing containment will prevent escalation to a presidential national emergency declaration, with key variables including case counts, geographic spread into additional states, and any revised modeling from APHIS or NWS monitoring updates expected in coming weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions