NOAA’s below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook, forecasting just 8–14 named storms and 1–3 major hurricanes, is the dominant factor anchoring the 61.5% market-implied probability on “No.” Through June, the U.S. recorded 12 billion-dollar events—mostly severe storms—placing the year on pace for roughly 23 total disasters according to smoothed historical trends, well below the 28-event record set in 2023. Climate Central and NOAA data confirm that hurricane landfalls and major severe-weather outbreaks drive the highest annual counts, so reduced tropical activity through November limits upside risk despite ongoing wildfire and heat-wave potential. Model consensus and early-season steering patterns reinforce this tempered trajectory, though late-season shifts in sea-surface temperatures could still alter outcomes before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
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Jun 30, 2027
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Jun 30, 2027
This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No".
The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.
Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.
If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".NOAA’s below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook, forecasting just 8–14 named storms and 1–3 major hurricanes, is the dominant factor anchoring the 61.5% market-implied probability on “No.” Through June, the U.S. recorded 12 billion-dollar events—mostly severe storms—placing the year on pace for roughly 23 total disasters according to smoothed historical trends, well below the 28-event record set in 2023. Climate Central and NOAA data confirm that hurricane landfalls and major severe-weather outbreaks drive the highest annual counts, so reduced tropical activity through November limits upside risk despite ongoing wildfire and heat-wave potential. Model consensus and early-season steering patterns reinforce this tempered trajectory, though late-season shifts in sea-surface temperatures could still alter outcomes before year-end.
This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No".
The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.
Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.
If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".
The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.
Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.
If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:44 PM ET
Volume
$41End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No".
The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.
Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.
If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".NOAA’s below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook, forecasting just 8–14 named storms and 1–3 major hurricanes, is the dominant factor anchoring the 61.5% market-implied probability on “No.” Through June, the U.S. recorded 12 billion-dollar events—mostly severe storms—placing the year on pace for roughly 23 total disasters according to smoothed historical trends, well below the 28-event record set in 2023. Climate Central and NOAA data confirm that hurricane landfalls and major severe-weather outbreaks drive the highest annual counts, so reduced tropical activity through November limits upside risk despite ongoing wildfire and heat-wave potential. Model consensus and early-season steering patterns reinforce this tempered trajectory, though late-season shifts in sea-surface temperatures could still alter outcomes before year-end.
This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No".
The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.
Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.
If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".
The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.
Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.
If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".
Volume
$41End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook, forecasting just 8–14 named storms and 1–3 major hurricanes, is the dominant factor anchoring the 61.5% market-implied probability on “No.” Through June, the U.S. recorded 12 billion-dollar events—mostly severe storms—placing the year on pace for roughly 23 total disasters according to smoothed historical trends, well below the 28-event record set in 2023. Climate Central and NOAA data confirm that hurricane landfalls and major severe-weather outbreaks drive the highest annual counts, so reduced tropical activity through November limits upside risk despite ongoing wildfire and heat-wave potential. Model consensus and early-season steering patterns reinforce this tempered trajectory, though late-season shifts in sea-surface temperatures could still alter outcomes before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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