Recent convective outlooks from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center indicate only marginal to slight severe risks across the northern Plains, Rockies, and Southeast through month’s end, consistent with climatological decline after peak spring/early-summer activity. Preliminary reports show 48 tornadoes through mid-August 2026, tracking near the long-term August average of roughly 80 touchdowns when extrapolated over the remaining days. Elevated 2026 totals overall, driven by persistent instability and shear in the Midwest, have not produced the large-scale outbreaks typical of peak months, supporting trader consensus around the 80–119 bin as the most probable range. Model guidance shows no strong signals for anomalous patterns that would push counts significantly above or below historical norms before September.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
80-99 49%
100–119 27%
40–59 11.0%
60-79 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<40
2%
40–59
10%
60-79
10%
80-99
49%
100–119
27%
120–139
5%
140-169
5%
170–199
1%
200+
12%
80-99 49%
100–119 27%
40–59 11.0%
60-79 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<40
$273 Vol.
2%
40–59
$523 Vol.
10%
60-79
$1,204 Vol.
10%
80-99
$1,919 Vol.
49%
100–119
$390 Vol.
27%
120–139
$68 Vol.
5%
140-169
$256 Vol.
5%
170–199
$159 Vol.
1%
200+
$294 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent convective outlooks from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center indicate only marginal to slight severe risks across the northern Plains, Rockies, and Southeast through month’s end, consistent with climatological decline after peak spring/early-summer activity. Preliminary reports show 48 tornadoes through mid-August 2026, tracking near the long-term August average of roughly 80 touchdowns when extrapolated over the remaining days. Elevated 2026 totals overall, driven by persistent instability and shear in the Midwest, have not produced the large-scale outbreaks typical of peak months, supporting trader consensus around the 80–119 bin as the most probable range. Model guidance shows no strong signals for anomalous patterns that would push counts significantly above or below historical norms before September.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$5,086End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent convective outlooks from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center indicate only marginal to slight severe risks across the northern Plains, Rockies, and Southeast through month’s end, consistent with climatological decline after peak spring/early-summer activity. Preliminary reports show 48 tornadoes through mid-August 2026, tracking near the long-term August average of roughly 80 touchdowns when extrapolated over the remaining days. Elevated 2026 totals overall, driven by persistent instability and shear in the Midwest, have not produced the large-scale outbreaks typical of peak months, supporting trader consensus around the 80–119 bin as the most probable range. Model guidance shows no strong signals for anomalous patterns that would push counts significantly above or below historical norms before September.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$5,086End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent convective outlooks from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center indicate only marginal to slight severe risks across the northern Plains, Rockies, and Southeast through month’s end, consistent with climatological decline after peak spring/early-summer activity. Preliminary reports show 48 tornadoes through mid-August 2026, tracking near the long-term August average of roughly 80 touchdowns when extrapolated over the remaining days. Elevated 2026 totals overall, driven by persistent instability and shear in the Midwest, have not produced the large-scale outbreaks typical of peak months, supporting trader consensus around the 80–119 bin as the most probable range. Model guidance shows no strong signals for anomalous patterns that would push counts significantly above or below historical norms before September.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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