Record June and July heatwaves have propelled France toward its hottest meteorological summer on record, with Météo-France confirming multiple national temperature benchmarks shattered amid persistent heat domes and climate-amplified extremes. June delivered the country's hottest day ever alongside the warmest monthly average, while July posted an all-time high of 24.9°C, eclipsing long-standing marks from 2003 and 2006. Traders assign a near-certain 95.9% implied probability to “Yes” because these early extremes create a substantial lead that even typical August conditions would likely preserve. A sustained cool spell through the final weeks of August remains the main realistic upset scenario that could narrow the margin without fully overturning the frontrunner status.