USGS records confirm exactly one earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide during August 17–23 2026, consistent with the market’s 100% implied probability on outcome “1.” Global seismicity averages one to three events of this size weekly, driven by ongoing subduction along the Pacific Ring of Fire and other major plate boundaries, with no unusual clustering or aftershock sequences pushing the count higher in this window. The confirmed event aligns with routine monitoring data and historical patterns, leaving little room for additional verified quakes near the period’s cutoff. A second event would require either a late catalog addition or magnitude revision above the threshold, both low-probability outcomes given final USGS verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
1 100.0%
2 1.3%
5 <1%
3 <1%
$20,522 Vol.
$20,522 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
1
100%
2
1%
3
<1%
4
<1%
5
1%
>5
<1%
1 100.0%
2 1.3%
5 <1%
3 <1%
$20,522 Vol.
$20,522 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
1
$5,847 Vol.
100%
2
$4,582 Vol.
1%
3
$833 Vol.
<1%
4
$781 Vol.
<1%
5
$1,265 Vol.
1%
>5
$2,341 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS records confirm exactly one earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide during August 17–23 2026, consistent with the market’s 100% implied probability on outcome “1.” Global seismicity averages one to three events of this size weekly, driven by ongoing subduction along the Pacific Ring of Fire and other major plate boundaries, with no unusual clustering or aftershock sequences pushing the count higher in this window. The confirmed event aligns with routine monitoring data and historical patterns, leaving little room for additional verified quakes near the period’s cutoff. A second event would require either a late catalog addition or magnitude revision above the threshold, both low-probability outcomes given final USGS verification.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$20,522End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS records confirm exactly one earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide during August 17–23 2026, consistent with the market’s 100% implied probability on outcome “1.” Global seismicity averages one to three events of this size weekly, driven by ongoing subduction along the Pacific Ring of Fire and other major plate boundaries, with no unusual clustering or aftershock sequences pushing the count higher in this window. The confirmed event aligns with routine monitoring data and historical patterns, leaving little room for additional verified quakes near the period’s cutoff. A second event would require either a late catalog addition or magnitude revision above the threshold, both low-probability outcomes given final USGS verification.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$20,522End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...USGS records confirm exactly one earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide during August 17–23 2026, consistent with the market’s 100% implied probability on outcome “1.” Global seismicity averages one to three events of this size weekly, driven by ongoing subduction along the Pacific Ring of Fire and other major plate boundaries, with no unusual clustering or aftershock sequences pushing the count higher in this window. The confirmed event aligns with routine monitoring data and historical patterns, leaving little room for additional verified quakes near the period’s cutoff. A second event would require either a late catalog addition or magnitude revision above the threshold, both low-probability outcomes given final USGS verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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