Strong El Niño conditions, now strengthening toward super El Niño levels, are the primary driver suppressing 2026 Atlantic activity through increased wind shear and unfavorable steering patterns. Official NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks project a below-normal season with high confidence, calling for just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes total. As of late August, the basin has produced only three tropical storms and zero hurricanes, with Accumulated Cyclone Energy at roughly 3 percent of the long-term median. Historical data show Category 4+ U.S. landfalls average roughly one every six years, while El Niño years produce even fewer; combined with diminished major-hurricane landfall odds of 17–24 percent, these factors underpin the market’s 83.5 percent implied probability of no Category 4 landfall before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
16% chance
$340,683 Vol.
$340,683 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
16% chance
$340,683 Vol.
$340,683 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, now strengthening toward super El Niño levels, are the primary driver suppressing 2026 Atlantic activity through increased wind shear and unfavorable steering patterns. Official NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks project a below-normal season with high confidence, calling for just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes total. As of late August, the basin has produced only three tropical storms and zero hurricanes, with Accumulated Cyclone Energy at roughly 3 percent of the long-term median. Historical data show Category 4+ U.S. landfalls average roughly one every six years, while El Niño years produce even fewer; combined with diminished major-hurricane landfall odds of 17–24 percent, these factors underpin the market’s 83.5 percent implied probability of no Category 4 landfall before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$340,683End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, now strengthening toward super El Niño levels, are the primary driver suppressing 2026 Atlantic activity through increased wind shear and unfavorable steering patterns. Official NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks project a below-normal season with high confidence, calling for just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes total. As of late August, the basin has produced only three tropical storms and zero hurricanes, with Accumulated Cyclone Energy at roughly 3 percent of the long-term median. Historical data show Category 4+ U.S. landfalls average roughly one every six years, while El Niño years produce even fewer; combined with diminished major-hurricane landfall odds of 17–24 percent, these factors underpin the market’s 83.5 percent implied probability of no Category 4 landfall before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$340,683End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions, now strengthening toward super El Niño levels, are the primary driver suppressing 2026 Atlantic activity through increased wind shear and unfavorable steering patterns. Official NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks project a below-normal season with high confidence, calling for just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes total. As of late August, the basin has produced only three tropical storms and zero hurricanes, with Accumulated Cyclone Energy at roughly 3 percent of the long-term median. Historical data show Category 4+ U.S. landfalls average roughly one every six years, while El Niño years produce even fewer; combined with diminished major-hurricane landfall odds of 17–24 percent, these factors underpin the market’s 83.5 percent implied probability of no Category 4 landfall before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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