What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

Over 2.5 65%

2.25–2.5 20%

2.0–2.25 16.2%

Under 1.5 <1%

NEW

Mar 31, 2027

Under 1.5

$518 Vol.

<1%

1.5–2.0

$594 Vol.

<1%

2.0–2.25

$1,256 Vol.

16%

2.25–2.5

$1,777 Vol.

20%

Over 2.5

$2,255 Vol.

65%

Over 2.5 65%

2.25–2.5 20%

2.0–2.25 16.2%

Under 1.5 <1%

NEW

Mar 31, 2027

Under 1.5

$518 Vol.

<1%

1.5–2.0

$594 Vol.

<1%

2.0–2.25

$1,256 Vol.

16%

2.25–2.5

$1,777 Vol.

20%

Over 2.5

$2,255 Vol.

65%

This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is below +1.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No". The peak RONI is the single highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.

Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

90%

Will global temperature increase by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026?

43%

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

71%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Over 2.5" at 65%, followed by "2.25–2.5" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?" is "Over 2.5" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2.25–2.5" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 65¢ for "Over 2.5" in the "What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 65% chance that "Over 2.5" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 65¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 35¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Mar 31, 2027. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

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Rules

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Frequently Asked Questions

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