Persistent cloud cover and heavy rainfall from a South China Sea disturbance are the primary factors capping Shenzhen's August 24 peak temperatures near 31–33°C, aligning with market-implied probabilities where 32°C leads at 41.5% followed by 31°C at 30.5%. Subtropical monsoon conditions typically produce highs of 30–34°C in late summer, but widespread thunderstorms and overcast skies reduce solar insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, suppressing extremes above 34°C to just 3.5% odds. Official forecasts from multiple models show daytime maxima clustered around 31–33°C amid 60–85% rain chances and moderate southwest winds, with limited model spread supporting trader consensus on this narrow range ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 24?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 24?
32°C 42%
31°C 31%
33°C 20%
30°C 8%
NEW
$20,563 Vol.
NEW
$20,563 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
8%
31°C
31%
32°C
42%
33°C
20%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
1%
32°C 42%
31°C 31%
33°C 20%
30°C 8%
NEW
$20,563 Vol.
NEW
$20,563 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
25°C or below
$384 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$426 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,090 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,218 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$3,275 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$3,384 Vol.
8%
31°C
$3,765 Vol.
31%
32°C
$1,761 Vol.
42%
33°C
$1,326 Vol.
20%
34°C
$1,242 Vol.
4%
35°C or higher
$1,691 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover and heavy rainfall from a South China Sea disturbance are the primary factors capping Shenzhen's August 24 peak temperatures near 31–33°C, aligning with market-implied probabilities where 32°C leads at 41.5% followed by 31°C at 30.5%. Subtropical monsoon conditions typically produce highs of 30–34°C in late summer, but widespread thunderstorms and overcast skies reduce solar insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, suppressing extremes above 34°C to just 3.5% odds. Official forecasts from multiple models show daytime maxima clustered around 31–33°C amid 60–85% rain chances and moderate southwest winds, with limited model spread supporting trader consensus on this narrow range ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$20,563End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover and heavy rainfall from a South China Sea disturbance are the primary factors capping Shenzhen's August 24 peak temperatures near 31–33°C, aligning with market-implied probabilities where 32°C leads at 41.5% followed by 31°C at 30.5%. Subtropical monsoon conditions typically produce highs of 30–34°C in late summer, but widespread thunderstorms and overcast skies reduce solar insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, suppressing extremes above 34°C to just 3.5% odds. Official forecasts from multiple models show daytime maxima clustered around 31–33°C amid 60–85% rain chances and moderate southwest winds, with limited model spread supporting trader consensus on this narrow range ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20,563End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent cloud cover and heavy rainfall from a South China Sea disturbance are the primary factors capping Shenzhen's August 24 peak temperatures near 31–33°C, aligning with market-implied probabilities where 32°C leads at 41.5% followed by 31°C at 30.5%. Subtropical monsoon conditions typically produce highs of 30–34°C in late summer, but widespread thunderstorms and overcast skies reduce solar insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, suppressing extremes above 34°C to just 3.5% odds. Official forecasts from multiple models show daytime maxima clustered around 31–33°C amid 60–85% rain chances and moderate southwest winds, with limited model spread supporting trader consensus on this narrow range ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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