Official forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international models point to a minimum temperature in Shenzhen on August 25, 2026, likely in the 25–28°C range amid ongoing monsoon conditions and scattered thunderstorms. Elevated humidity, persistent cloud cover, and light winds limit nocturnal radiative cooling in this subtropical climate, keeping overnight lows above seasonal averages near 26°C. Recent model runs show tight consensus on these values with minimal spread, though localized variations in rainfall timing could nudge the exact low by 1–2°C. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow uncertainty band, with traders weighting the probability of 26–29°C outcomes highest while assigning low likelihood to extremes below 24°C or above 32°C absent a sudden shift in steering patterns or typhoon influence. Updated numerical weather prediction outputs expected in the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 25?
33°C or higher 48%
30°C 46%
28°C 31%
26°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
2%
24°C
13%
25°C
25%
26°C
28%
27°C
15%
28°C
31%
29°C
25%
30°C
46%
31°C
1%
32°C
9%
33°C or higher
48%
33°C or higher 48%
30°C 46%
28°C 31%
26°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
$210 Vol.
2%
24°C
$35 Vol.
13%
25°C
$6 Vol.
25%
26°C
$0 Vol.
28%
27°C
$0 Vol.
15%
28°C
$0 Vol.
31%
29°C
$0 Vol.
25%
30°C
$5 Vol.
46%
31°C
$5 Vol.
1%
32°C
$5 Vol.
9%
33°C or higher
$5 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international models point to a minimum temperature in Shenzhen on August 25, 2026, likely in the 25–28°C range amid ongoing monsoon conditions and scattered thunderstorms. Elevated humidity, persistent cloud cover, and light winds limit nocturnal radiative cooling in this subtropical climate, keeping overnight lows above seasonal averages near 26°C. Recent model runs show tight consensus on these values with minimal spread, though localized variations in rainfall timing could nudge the exact low by 1–2°C. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow uncertainty band, with traders weighting the probability of 26–29°C outcomes highest while assigning low likelihood to extremes below 24°C or above 32°C absent a sudden shift in steering patterns or typhoon influence. Updated numerical weather prediction outputs expected in the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$271End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international models point to a minimum temperature in Shenzhen on August 25, 2026, likely in the 25–28°C range amid ongoing monsoon conditions and scattered thunderstorms. Elevated humidity, persistent cloud cover, and light winds limit nocturnal radiative cooling in this subtropical climate, keeping overnight lows above seasonal averages near 26°C. Recent model runs show tight consensus on these values with minimal spread, though localized variations in rainfall timing could nudge the exact low by 1–2°C. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow uncertainty band, with traders weighting the probability of 26–29°C outcomes highest while assigning low likelihood to extremes below 24°C or above 32°C absent a sudden shift in steering patterns or typhoon influence. Updated numerical weather prediction outputs expected in the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$271End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international models point to a minimum temperature in Shenzhen on August 25, 2026, likely in the 25–28°C range amid ongoing monsoon conditions and scattered thunderstorms. Elevated humidity, persistent cloud cover, and light winds limit nocturnal radiative cooling in this subtropical climate, keeping overnight lows above seasonal averages near 26°C. Recent model runs show tight consensus on these values with minimal spread, though localized variations in rainfall timing could nudge the exact low by 1–2°C. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow uncertainty band, with traders weighting the probability of 26–29°C outcomes highest while assigning low likelihood to extremes below 24°C or above 32°C absent a sudden shift in steering patterns or typhoon influence. Updated numerical weather prediction outputs expected in the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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