**Recent forecasts position 27°C as the most probable overnight minimum for Shanghai on August 25, with 26°C a close secondary option, consistent with the market's 53% and 25% implied probabilities.** Multiple models, including WeatherBug and regional Chinese forecasts, project highs near 32°C and lows of 26–27°C under partly cloudy skies with light southeast to east winds and modest humidity. This aligns with late-August climatology for the region, where subtropical warmth and limited radiative cooling keep overnight temperatures in this narrow band. Recent days have shown similar patterns, with observed minima of 26–27°C amid stable high pressure and no strong frontal systems or tropical influences to drive sharper cooling. Model consensus supports limited day-to-day variability over the next 48 hours, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge the low by 1°C in either direction. Traders appear to weigh these near-term guidance runs heavily, producing the observed concentration on 26–27°C outcomes while assigning low probability to extremes outside that range. Updated forecast runs from official agencies will be the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 25?
27°C 55%
26°C 25%
28°C 18%
29°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
5%
26°C
25%
27°C
55%
28°C
18%
29°C
7%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 55%
26°C 25%
28°C 18%
29°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
22°C or below
$61 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$10 Vol.
1%
24°C
$10 Vol.
3%
25°C
$226 Vol.
5%
26°C
$892 Vol.
25%
27°C
$874 Vol.
55%
28°C
$246 Vol.
18%
29°C
$10 Vol.
7%
30°C
$69 Vol.
1%
31°C
$67 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$67 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts position 27°C as the most probable overnight minimum for Shanghai on August 25, with 26°C a close secondary option, consistent with the market's 53% and 25% implied probabilities.**
Multiple models, including WeatherBug and regional Chinese forecasts, project highs near 32°C and lows of 26–27°C under partly cloudy skies with light southeast to east winds and modest humidity. This aligns with late-August climatology for the region, where subtropical warmth and limited radiative cooling keep overnight temperatures in this narrow band. Recent days have shown similar patterns, with observed minima of 26–27°C amid stable high pressure and no strong frontal systems or tropical influences to drive sharper cooling.
Model consensus supports limited day-to-day variability over the next 48 hours, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge the low by 1°C in either direction. Traders appear to weigh these near-term guidance runs heavily, producing the observed concentration on 26–27°C outcomes while assigning low probability to extremes outside that range. Updated forecast runs from official agencies will be the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,533End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts position 27°C as the most probable overnight minimum for Shanghai on August 25, with 26°C a close secondary option, consistent with the market's 53% and 25% implied probabilities.**
Multiple models, including WeatherBug and regional Chinese forecasts, project highs near 32°C and lows of 26–27°C under partly cloudy skies with light southeast to east winds and modest humidity. This aligns with late-August climatology for the region, where subtropical warmth and limited radiative cooling keep overnight temperatures in this narrow band. Recent days have shown similar patterns, with observed minima of 26–27°C amid stable high pressure and no strong frontal systems or tropical influences to drive sharper cooling.
Model consensus supports limited day-to-day variability over the next 48 hours, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge the low by 1°C in either direction. Traders appear to weigh these near-term guidance runs heavily, producing the observed concentration on 26–27°C outcomes while assigning low probability to extremes outside that range. Updated forecast runs from official agencies will be the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,533End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts position 27°C as the most probable overnight minimum for Shanghai on August 25, with 26°C a close secondary option, consistent with the market's 53% and 25% implied probabilities.** Multiple models, including WeatherBug and regional Chinese forecasts, project highs near 32°C and lows of 26–27°C under partly cloudy skies with light southeast to east winds and modest humidity. This aligns with late-August climatology for the region, where subtropical warmth and limited radiative cooling keep overnight temperatures in this narrow band. Recent days have shown similar patterns, with observed minima of 26–27°C amid stable high pressure and no strong frontal systems or tropical influences to drive sharper cooling. Model consensus supports limited day-to-day variability over the next 48 hours, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge the low by 1°C in either direction. Traders appear to weigh these near-term guidance runs heavily, producing the observed concentration on 26–27°C outcomes while assigning low probability to extremes outside that range. Updated forecast runs from official agencies will be the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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