Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models converge on a daily high of 31–32°C for Shanghai on August 25, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes. Persistent southeast winds associated with nearby tropical systems, combined with high humidity and scattered cloud cover, are expected to limit daytime heating while preventing significant cooling. Late-August climatology in the region shows average highs near 31°C with typical variability of ±2°C driven by convective activity and steering patterns. Updated model runs through August 23 indicate light precipitation chances that could further cap temperatures, while clearer intervals might allow brief spikes. Resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at the primary station, with traders incorporating the narrow spread between current consensus guidance and historical analogs for this date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 25?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 25?
31°C 51%
32°C 35%
30°C 10%
33°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
3%
30°C
10%
31°C
51%
32°C
35%
33°C
7%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 51%
32°C 35%
30°C 10%
33°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
25°C or below
$260 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$112 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$80 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$80 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$603 Vol.
3%
30°C
$456 Vol.
10%
31°C
$894 Vol.
51%
32°C
$689 Vol.
35%
33°C
$21 Vol.
7%
34°C
$12 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$41 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models converge on a daily high of 31–32°C for Shanghai on August 25, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes. Persistent southeast winds associated with nearby tropical systems, combined with high humidity and scattered cloud cover, are expected to limit daytime heating while preventing significant cooling. Late-August climatology in the region shows average highs near 31°C with typical variability of ±2°C driven by convective activity and steering patterns. Updated model runs through August 23 indicate light precipitation chances that could further cap temperatures, while clearer intervals might allow brief spikes. Resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at the primary station, with traders incorporating the narrow spread between current consensus guidance and historical analogs for this date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,248End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models converge on a daily high of 31–32°C for Shanghai on August 25, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes. Persistent southeast winds associated with nearby tropical systems, combined with high humidity and scattered cloud cover, are expected to limit daytime heating while preventing significant cooling. Late-August climatology in the region shows average highs near 31°C with typical variability of ±2°C driven by convective activity and steering patterns. Updated model runs through August 23 indicate light precipitation chances that could further cap temperatures, while clearer intervals might allow brief spikes. Resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at the primary station, with traders incorporating the narrow spread between current consensus guidance and historical analogs for this date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,248End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models converge on a daily high of 31–32°C for Shanghai on August 25, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes. Persistent southeast winds associated with nearby tropical systems, combined with high humidity and scattered cloud cover, are expected to limit daytime heating while preventing significant cooling. Late-August climatology in the region shows average highs near 31°C with typical variability of ±2°C driven by convective activity and steering patterns. Updated model runs through August 23 indicate light precipitation chances that could further cap temperatures, while clearer intervals might allow brief spikes. Resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at the primary station, with traders incorporating the narrow spread between current consensus guidance and historical analogs for this date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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