Latest ensemble forecasts from global models show considerable spread in projected maximum temperatures for Wuhan on August 26, keeping 33–36 °C outcomes evenly matched near 25 % implied probability each. Position and strength of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, combined with variable low-level moisture advection from the Yangtze River valley and modest differences in afternoon cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing, produce the 1–3 °C range across runs. Urban heat-island effects in the densely built city amplify daytime peaks relative to rural surroundings, while climatological late-August baselines near 34 °C provide context for the narrow distribution. New model cycles and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the consensus ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wuhan on August 26?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 26?
37°C 32%
36°C 29%
38°C 16%
35°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
30°C or below
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
14%
34°C
9%
35°C
14%
36°C
29%
37°C
32%
38°C
16%
39°C
4%
40°C or higher
1%
37°C 32%
36°C 29%
38°C 16%
35°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
30°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
31°C
$0 Vol.
1%
32°C
$0 Vol.
2%
33°C
$0 Vol.
14%
34°C
$0 Vol.
9%
35°C
$0 Vol.
14%
36°C
$0 Vol.
29%
37°C
$11 Vol.
32%
38°C
$18 Vol.
16%
39°C
$0 Vol.
4%
40°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from global models show considerable spread in projected maximum temperatures for Wuhan on August 26, keeping 33–36 °C outcomes evenly matched near 25 % implied probability each. Position and strength of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, combined with variable low-level moisture advection from the Yangtze River valley and modest differences in afternoon cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing, produce the 1–3 °C range across runs. Urban heat-island effects in the densely built city amplify daytime peaks relative to rural surroundings, while climatological late-August baselines near 34 °C provide context for the narrow distribution. New model cycles and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the consensus ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$29End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from global models show considerable spread in projected maximum temperatures for Wuhan on August 26, keeping 33–36 °C outcomes evenly matched near 25 % implied probability each. Position and strength of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, combined with variable low-level moisture advection from the Yangtze River valley and modest differences in afternoon cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing, produce the 1–3 °C range across runs. Urban heat-island effects in the densely built city amplify daytime peaks relative to rural surroundings, while climatological late-August baselines near 34 °C provide context for the narrow distribution. New model cycles and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the consensus ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$29End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from global models show considerable spread in projected maximum temperatures for Wuhan on August 26, keeping 33–36 °C outcomes evenly matched near 25 % implied probability each. Position and strength of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, combined with variable low-level moisture advection from the Yangtze River valley and modest differences in afternoon cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing, produce the 1–3 °C range across runs. Urban heat-island effects in the densely built city amplify daytime peaks relative to rural surroundings, while climatological late-August baselines near 34 °C provide context for the narrow distribution. New model cycles and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the consensus ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions