Current short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models converge on a Tokyo maximum of 32–33°C for August 24 under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and light southerly flow. High dew points near 23–25°C and modest boundary-layer mixing limit daytime heating, while variable cloud cover and shower timing create the narrow spread between the two leading market outcomes. Recent model runs show minor disagreements on convective timing that could shift the peak by 1°C either way, consistent with late-summer conditions where the Pacific high maintains warmth but allows intermittent moisture. Updated JMA guidance and afternoon model cycles remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 24?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 24?
32°C 43%
33°C 42%
34°C 10%
31°C 9%
NEW
$15,871 Vol.
NEW
$15,871 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C
9%
32°C
43%
33°C
42%
34°C
10%
35°C or higher
1%
32°C 43%
33°C 42%
34°C 10%
31°C 9%
NEW
$15,871 Vol.
NEW
$15,871 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
25°C or below
$1,424 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,422 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,394 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$590 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$881 Vol.
1%
30°C
$1,106 Vol.
2%
31°C
$3,218 Vol.
9%
32°C
$954 Vol.
43%
33°C
$1,788 Vol.
42%
34°C
$1,932 Vol.
10%
35°C or higher
$1,162 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models converge on a Tokyo maximum of 32–33°C for August 24 under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and light southerly flow. High dew points near 23–25°C and modest boundary-layer mixing limit daytime heating, while variable cloud cover and shower timing create the narrow spread between the two leading market outcomes. Recent model runs show minor disagreements on convective timing that could shift the peak by 1°C either way, consistent with late-summer conditions where the Pacific high maintains warmth but allows intermittent moisture. Updated JMA guidance and afternoon model cycles remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$15,871End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models converge on a Tokyo maximum of 32–33°C for August 24 under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and light southerly flow. High dew points near 23–25°C and modest boundary-layer mixing limit daytime heating, while variable cloud cover and shower timing create the narrow spread between the two leading market outcomes. Recent model runs show minor disagreements on convective timing that could shift the peak by 1°C either way, consistent with late-summer conditions where the Pacific high maintains warmth but allows intermittent moisture. Updated JMA guidance and afternoon model cycles remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,871End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models converge on a Tokyo maximum of 32–33°C for August 24 under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and light southerly flow. High dew points near 23–25°C and modest boundary-layer mixing limit daytime heating, while variable cloud cover and shower timing create the narrow spread between the two leading market outcomes. Recent model runs show minor disagreements on convective timing that could shift the peak by 1°C either way, consistent with late-summer conditions where the Pacific high maintains warmth but allows intermittent moisture. Updated JMA guidance and afternoon model cycles remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions