**Recent forecasts from multiple models position the overnight low in Tokyo on August 25 around 26–28°C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes (27°C at 48.5%, 26°C at 23.5%, 28°C at 20%).** Persistent humid southerly flow from the Pacific, combined with limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and the urban heat island effect, supports these elevated minimum temperatures. Recent instability across the Kanto region—marked by heavy thunderstorms and record short-duration rainfall on August 22–23—has maintained high dew points and soil moisture, which tends to suppress overnight temperature drops. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts show consistent warm advection through the period, with no significant frontal passage or clear-sky radiative cooling expected before the 25th. Historical late-August climatology for Tokyo features average lows near 23–25°C, but the current pattern reflects above-normal nighttime warmth driven by elevated moisture and weak pressure gradients. Traders appear to be pricing in model consensus around the 27°C mark while assigning modest probability to slight model spread or localized variations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
27°C 54%
26°C 24%
28°C 20%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
8%
25°C
7%
26°C
24%
27°C
54%
28°C
20%
29°C
5%
30°C
5%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 54%
26°C 24%
28°C 20%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
$550 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$25 Vol.
1%
24°C
$10 Vol.
8%
25°C
$92 Vol.
7%
26°C
$82 Vol.
24%
27°C
$230 Vol.
54%
28°C
$166 Vol.
20%
29°C
$5 Vol.
5%
30°C
$5 Vol.
5%
31°C or higher
$395 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple models position the overnight low in Tokyo on August 25 around 26–28°C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes (27°C at 48.5%, 26°C at 23.5%, 28°C at 20%).**
Persistent humid southerly flow from the Pacific, combined with limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and the urban heat island effect, supports these elevated minimum temperatures. Recent instability across the Kanto region—marked by heavy thunderstorms and record short-duration rainfall on August 22–23—has maintained high dew points and soil moisture, which tends to suppress overnight temperature drops.
Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts show consistent warm advection through the period, with no significant frontal passage or clear-sky radiative cooling expected before the 25th. Historical late-August climatology for Tokyo features average lows near 23–25°C, but the current pattern reflects above-normal nighttime warmth driven by elevated moisture and weak pressure gradients. Traders appear to be pricing in model consensus around the 27°C mark while assigning modest probability to slight model spread or localized variations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,596End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple models position the overnight low in Tokyo on August 25 around 26–28°C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes (27°C at 48.5%, 26°C at 23.5%, 28°C at 20%).**
Persistent humid southerly flow from the Pacific, combined with limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and the urban heat island effect, supports these elevated minimum temperatures. Recent instability across the Kanto region—marked by heavy thunderstorms and record short-duration rainfall on August 22–23—has maintained high dew points and soil moisture, which tends to suppress overnight temperature drops.
Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts show consistent warm advection through the period, with no significant frontal passage or clear-sky radiative cooling expected before the 25th. Historical late-August climatology for Tokyo features average lows near 23–25°C, but the current pattern reflects above-normal nighttime warmth driven by elevated moisture and weak pressure gradients. Traders appear to be pricing in model consensus around the 27°C mark while assigning modest probability to slight model spread or localized variations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,596End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from multiple models position the overnight low in Tokyo on August 25 around 26–28°C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes (27°C at 48.5%, 26°C at 23.5%, 28°C at 20%).** Persistent humid southerly flow from the Pacific, combined with limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and the urban heat island effect, supports these elevated minimum temperatures. Recent instability across the Kanto region—marked by heavy thunderstorms and record short-duration rainfall on August 22–23—has maintained high dew points and soil moisture, which tends to suppress overnight temperature drops. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts show consistent warm advection through the period, with no significant frontal passage or clear-sky radiative cooling expected before the 25th. Historical late-August climatology for Tokyo features average lows near 23–25°C, but the current pattern reflects above-normal nighttime warmth driven by elevated moisture and weak pressure gradients. Traders appear to be pricing in model consensus around the 27°C mark while assigning modest probability to slight model spread or localized variations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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