Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 24 project a minimum of 25°C under partly cloudy skies with highs near 34°C, aligning closely with climatological norms of 24–25°C driven by the persistent subtropical high, elevated humidity above 70%, and Tokyo’s urban heat island effect that restricts nocturnal radiative cooling. Ensemble model guidance shows minor divergence on overnight cloud cover and wind patterns, which can shift the low by 1°C and explain the tight market split favoring 25°C at 52.5% implied probability over 26°C at 43.5%. Traders weigh these variables against historical late-August observations where minima cluster tightly around seasonal baselines, with limited downside risk for 24°C or below given current atmospheric conditions. Updated JMA briefings and NOAA observational data ahead of resolution will refine this assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 24?
25°C 53%
26°C 44%
24°C 4%
23°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
4%
25°C
53%
26°C
44%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 53%
26°C 44%
24°C 4%
23°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
19°C or below
$210 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$315 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$240 Vol.
1%
23°C
$733 Vol.
2%
24°C
$280 Vol.
4%
25°C
$509 Vol.
53%
26°C
$298 Vol.
44%
27°C
$657 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$295 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$140 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 24 project a minimum of 25°C under partly cloudy skies with highs near 34°C, aligning closely with climatological norms of 24–25°C driven by the persistent subtropical high, elevated humidity above 70%, and Tokyo’s urban heat island effect that restricts nocturnal radiative cooling. Ensemble model guidance shows minor divergence on overnight cloud cover and wind patterns, which can shift the low by 1°C and explain the tight market split favoring 25°C at 52.5% implied probability over 26°C at 43.5%. Traders weigh these variables against historical late-August observations where minima cluster tightly around seasonal baselines, with limited downside risk for 24°C or below given current atmospheric conditions. Updated JMA briefings and NOAA observational data ahead of resolution will refine this assessment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$3,791End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 24 project a minimum of 25°C under partly cloudy skies with highs near 34°C, aligning closely with climatological norms of 24–25°C driven by the persistent subtropical high, elevated humidity above 70%, and Tokyo’s urban heat island effect that restricts nocturnal radiative cooling. Ensemble model guidance shows minor divergence on overnight cloud cover and wind patterns, which can shift the low by 1°C and explain the tight market split favoring 25°C at 52.5% implied probability over 26°C at 43.5%. Traders weigh these variables against historical late-August observations where minima cluster tightly around seasonal baselines, with limited downside risk for 24°C or below given current atmospheric conditions. Updated JMA briefings and NOAA observational data ahead of resolution will refine this assessment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,791End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 24 project a minimum of 25°C under partly cloudy skies with highs near 34°C, aligning closely with climatological norms of 24–25°C driven by the persistent subtropical high, elevated humidity above 70%, and Tokyo’s urban heat island effect that restricts nocturnal radiative cooling. Ensemble model guidance shows minor divergence on overnight cloud cover and wind patterns, which can shift the low by 1°C and explain the tight market split favoring 25°C at 52.5% implied probability over 26°C at 43.5%. Traders weigh these variables against historical late-August observations where minima cluster tightly around seasonal baselines, with limited downside risk for 24°C or below given current atmospheric conditions. Updated JMA briefings and NOAA observational data ahead of resolution will refine this assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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