Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a high of 35°C for Tokyo on August 25 under high-pressure influence, southerly winds, and mostly sunny skies with low precipitation odds, favoring strong daytime radiative heating above the seasonal normal of ~31°C. Model consensus and recent observations of above-average warmth support this, though slight cooling from increased cloud cover or localized urban effects could moderate peaks. Trader sentiment, with 34°C leading at 35% implied probability ahead of 35°C at 14%, reflects uncertainty in final model runs and verification criteria near the resolution window. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble guidance over the next 48 hours remain key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
34°C 37%
33°C 25%
35°C 15%
32°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
29°C or below
1%
30°C
2%
31°C
4%
32°C
11%
33°C
25%
34°C
37%
35°C
15%
36°C
4%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 37%
33°C 25%
35°C 15%
32°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
29°C or below
$119 Vol.
1%
30°C
$66 Vol.
2%
31°C
$162 Vol.
4%
32°C
$376 Vol.
11%
33°C
$1,276 Vol.
25%
34°C
$400 Vol.
37%
35°C
$112 Vol.
15%
36°C
$388 Vol.
4%
37°C
$152 Vol.
2%
38°C
$391 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$199 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a high of 35°C for Tokyo on August 25 under high-pressure influence, southerly winds, and mostly sunny skies with low precipitation odds, favoring strong daytime radiative heating above the seasonal normal of ~31°C. Model consensus and recent observations of above-average warmth support this, though slight cooling from increased cloud cover or localized urban effects could moderate peaks. Trader sentiment, with 34°C leading at 35% implied probability ahead of 35°C at 14%, reflects uncertainty in final model runs and verification criteria near the resolution window. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble guidance over the next 48 hours remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,642End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a high of 35°C for Tokyo on August 25 under high-pressure influence, southerly winds, and mostly sunny skies with low precipitation odds, favoring strong daytime radiative heating above the seasonal normal of ~31°C. Model consensus and recent observations of above-average warmth support this, though slight cooling from increased cloud cover or localized urban effects could moderate peaks. Trader sentiment, with 34°C leading at 35% implied probability ahead of 35°C at 14%, reflects uncertainty in final model runs and verification criteria near the resolution window. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble guidance over the next 48 hours remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,642End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a high of 35°C for Tokyo on August 25 under high-pressure influence, southerly winds, and mostly sunny skies with low precipitation odds, favoring strong daytime radiative heating above the seasonal normal of ~31°C. Model consensus and recent observations of above-average warmth support this, though slight cooling from increased cloud cover or localized urban effects could moderate peaks. Trader sentiment, with 34°C leading at 35% implied probability ahead of 35°C at 14%, reflects uncertainty in final model runs and verification criteria near the resolution window. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble guidance over the next 48 hours remain key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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