National Weather Service forecasts for Austin on August 23 center on a high near 105°F under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly winds amid an ongoing Central Texas heat wave with multiple triple-digit days. This supports the market’s leading 104–105°F bin at 44.5% implied probability, followed by 106–107°F at 23.5%, as traders weigh afternoon mixing depth, maximum solar heating, and minor cloud interference that could shift the peak by 1–2°F. Historical August averages near 100°F highlight how current subsidence and low dew points amplify surface temperatures, with resolution based on official Austin-Bergstrom observations. Updated model runs will refine the exact outcome before the daily high is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 23?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 23?
104-105°F 45%
106-107°F 19%
102-103°F 8%
108-109°F 1.6%
$21,545 Vol.
$21,545 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
95°F or below
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98-99°F
<1%
100-101°F
1%
102-103°F
13%
104-105°F
45%
106-107°F
34%
108-109°F
2%
110-111°F
<1%
112-113°F
<1%
114°F or higher
<1%
104-105°F 45%
106-107°F 19%
102-103°F 8%
108-109°F 1.6%
$21,545 Vol.
$21,545 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
95°F or below
$299 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$463 Vol.
<1%
98-99°F
$217 Vol.
<1%
100-101°F
$1,669 Vol.
1%
102-103°F
$4,012 Vol.
13%
104-105°F
$4,326 Vol.
45%
106-107°F
$5,867 Vol.
34%
108-109°F
$3,105 Vol.
2%
110-111°F
$948 Vol.
<1%
112-113°F
$302 Vol.
<1%
114°F or higher
$337 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts for Austin on August 23 center on a high near 105°F under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly winds amid an ongoing Central Texas heat wave with multiple triple-digit days. This supports the market’s leading 104–105°F bin at 44.5% implied probability, followed by 106–107°F at 23.5%, as traders weigh afternoon mixing depth, maximum solar heating, and minor cloud interference that could shift the peak by 1–2°F. Historical August averages near 100°F highlight how current subsidence and low dew points amplify surface temperatures, with resolution based on official Austin-Bergstrom observations. Updated model runs will refine the exact outcome before the daily high is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$21,545End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts for Austin on August 23 center on a high near 105°F under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly winds amid an ongoing Central Texas heat wave with multiple triple-digit days. This supports the market’s leading 104–105°F bin at 44.5% implied probability, followed by 106–107°F at 23.5%, as traders weigh afternoon mixing depth, maximum solar heating, and minor cloud interference that could shift the peak by 1–2°F. Historical August averages near 100°F highlight how current subsidence and low dew points amplify surface temperatures, with resolution based on official Austin-Bergstrom observations. Updated model runs will refine the exact outcome before the daily high is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,545End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts for Austin on August 23 center on a high near 105°F under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly winds amid an ongoing Central Texas heat wave with multiple triple-digit days. This supports the market’s leading 104–105°F bin at 44.5% implied probability, followed by 106–107°F at 23.5%, as traders weigh afternoon mixing depth, maximum solar heating, and minor cloud interference that could shift the peak by 1–2°F. Historical August averages near 100°F highlight how current subsidence and low dew points amplify surface temperatures, with resolution based on official Austin-Bergstrom observations. Updated model runs will refine the exact outcome before the daily high is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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