A persistent heatwave across Central Texas, driven by strong high pressure, clear skies, and southerly flow advecting warm air, positions Austin for another day of extreme heat on August 24. Official National Weather Service and private model guidance consistently project afternoon highs in the 102–106°F range, consistent with recent observations of 104–106°F readings amid the longest stretch of triple-digit temperatures in two years. Climatological context shows late August as Austin’s peak warmth period, with daily averages near 95–100°F but frequent excursions above 102°F during such events. The market’s heavy weighting toward 104–105°F (53.5% implied probability) versus 102–103°F (34.5%) reflects the latest forecast consensus and minimal expected deviation before resolution, though any overnight model shift or unexpected cloud cover could narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 24?
104-105°F 54%
102-103°F 35%
106-107°F 9%
100-101°F 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
95°F or below
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98-99°F
1%
100-101°F
3%
102-103°F
35%
104-105°F
54%
106-107°F
9%
108-109°F
2%
110-111°F
1%
112-113°F
1%
114°F or higher
<1%
104-105°F 54%
102-103°F 35%
106-107°F 9%
100-101°F 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
95°F or below
$65 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$163 Vol.
<1%
98-99°F
$201 Vol.
1%
100-101°F
$353 Vol.
3%
102-103°F
$900 Vol.
35%
104-105°F
$1,701 Vol.
54%
106-107°F
$335 Vol.
9%
108-109°F
$165 Vol.
2%
110-111°F
$192 Vol.
1%
112-113°F
$167 Vol.
1%
114°F or higher
$180 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A persistent heatwave across Central Texas, driven by strong high pressure, clear skies, and southerly flow advecting warm air, positions Austin for another day of extreme heat on August 24. Official National Weather Service and private model guidance consistently project afternoon highs in the 102–106°F range, consistent with recent observations of 104–106°F readings amid the longest stretch of triple-digit temperatures in two years. Climatological context shows late August as Austin’s peak warmth period, with daily averages near 95–100°F but frequent excursions above 102°F during such events. The market’s heavy weighting toward 104–105°F (53.5% implied probability) versus 102–103°F (34.5%) reflects the latest forecast consensus and minimal expected deviation before resolution, though any overnight model shift or unexpected cloud cover could narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$4,315End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A persistent heatwave across Central Texas, driven by strong high pressure, clear skies, and southerly flow advecting warm air, positions Austin for another day of extreme heat on August 24. Official National Weather Service and private model guidance consistently project afternoon highs in the 102–106°F range, consistent with recent observations of 104–106°F readings amid the longest stretch of triple-digit temperatures in two years. Climatological context shows late August as Austin’s peak warmth period, with daily averages near 95–100°F but frequent excursions above 102°F during such events. The market’s heavy weighting toward 104–105°F (53.5% implied probability) versus 102–103°F (34.5%) reflects the latest forecast consensus and minimal expected deviation before resolution, though any overnight model shift or unexpected cloud cover could narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,315End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...A persistent heatwave across Central Texas, driven by strong high pressure, clear skies, and southerly flow advecting warm air, positions Austin for another day of extreme heat on August 24. Official National Weather Service and private model guidance consistently project afternoon highs in the 102–106°F range, consistent with recent observations of 104–106°F readings amid the longest stretch of triple-digit temperatures in two years. Climatological context shows late August as Austin’s peak warmth period, with daily averages near 95–100°F but frequent excursions above 102°F during such events. The market’s heavy weighting toward 104–105°F (53.5% implied probability) versus 102–103°F (34.5%) reflects the latest forecast consensus and minimal expected deviation before resolution, though any overnight model shift or unexpected cloud cover could narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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