National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models currently point to an overnight low near 78°F for Austin on August 24 under continued southerly flow and high pressure, though some runs show modest radiational cooling potential if skies clear overnight. This keeps the most likely minimum in the mid- to upper-70s range, consistent with August climatology where daily lows average 74–75°F. Trader positioning, with the two lowest bins leading at similar implied probabilities, reflects uncertainty around exact boundary-layer mixing and any subtle shortwave influences that could allow temperatures to dip a few degrees lower than deterministic forecasts. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of August 23 will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Austin on August 24?
73°F or below 35%
74-75°F 31%
76-77°F 21%
78-79°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
73°F or below
35%
74-75°F
31%
76-77°F
21%
78-79°F
19%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
13%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
1%
92°F or higher
1%
73°F or below 35%
74-75°F 31%
76-77°F 21%
78-79°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
73°F or below
$0 Vol.
35%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
31%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
21%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
19%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
19%
82-83°F
$21 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$20 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$145 Vol.
13%
88-89°F
$90 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$155 Vol.
1%
92°F or higher
$135 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models currently point to an overnight low near 78°F for Austin on August 24 under continued southerly flow and high pressure, though some runs show modest radiational cooling potential if skies clear overnight. This keeps the most likely minimum in the mid- to upper-70s range, consistent with August climatology where daily lows average 74–75°F. Trader positioning, with the two lowest bins leading at similar implied probabilities, reflects uncertainty around exact boundary-layer mixing and any subtle shortwave influences that could allow temperatures to dip a few degrees lower than deterministic forecasts. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of August 23 will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$566End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models currently point to an overnight low near 78°F for Austin on August 24 under continued southerly flow and high pressure, though some runs show modest radiational cooling potential if skies clear overnight. This keeps the most likely minimum in the mid- to upper-70s range, consistent with August climatology where daily lows average 74–75°F. Trader positioning, with the two lowest bins leading at similar implied probabilities, reflects uncertainty around exact boundary-layer mixing and any subtle shortwave influences that could allow temperatures to dip a few degrees lower than deterministic forecasts. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of August 23 will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$566End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models currently point to an overnight low near 78°F for Austin on August 24 under continued southerly flow and high pressure, though some runs show modest radiational cooling potential if skies clear overnight. This keeps the most likely minimum in the mid- to upper-70s range, consistent with August climatology where daily lows average 74–75°F. Trader positioning, with the two lowest bins leading at similar implied probabilities, reflects uncertainty around exact boundary-layer mixing and any subtle shortwave influences that could allow temperatures to dip a few degrees lower than deterministic forecasts. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of August 23 will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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