**Persistent southerly winds and residual heat from daytime highs exceeding 100°F have limited overnight radiative cooling across central Texas, keeping minimum temperatures in Austin elevated above seasonal norms.** Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models project the August 23 low in the upper 70s to low 80s under mostly clear skies, with light winds preventing significant drops. This aligns with the market's strong 88% implied probability on 74-75°F, reflecting trader consensus that conditions will produce a low near the upper end of recent historical values rather than the long-term average of ~73°F. Recent days of extreme heat have raised baseline temperatures, reducing the chance of sub-73°F readings to under 5% while making warmer outcomes appear improbable given current atmospheric patterns. Updated model runs and evening observations will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Austin on August 23?
74-75°F 98%
72-73°F 13.5%
71°F or below 9%
76-77°F <1%
$3,689 Vol.
$3,689 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
71°F or below
9%
72-73°F
14%
74-75°F
88%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 98%
72-73°F 13.5%
71°F or below 9%
76-77°F <1%
$3,689 Vol.
$3,689 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
71°F or below
$41 Vol.
9%
72-73°F
$625 Vol.
14%
74-75°F
$766 Vol.
88%
76-77°F
$335 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$100 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$100 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$100 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$858 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$165 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$399 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$200 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southerly winds and residual heat from daytime highs exceeding 100°F have limited overnight radiative cooling across central Texas, keeping minimum temperatures in Austin elevated above seasonal norms.** Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models project the August 23 low in the upper 70s to low 80s under mostly clear skies, with light winds preventing significant drops. This aligns with the market's strong 88% implied probability on 74-75°F, reflecting trader consensus that conditions will produce a low near the upper end of recent historical values rather than the long-term average of ~73°F. Recent days of extreme heat have raised baseline temperatures, reducing the chance of sub-73°F readings to under 5% while making warmer outcomes appear improbable given current atmospheric patterns. Updated model runs and evening observations will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$3,689End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southerly winds and residual heat from daytime highs exceeding 100°F have limited overnight radiative cooling across central Texas, keeping minimum temperatures in Austin elevated above seasonal norms.** Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models project the August 23 low in the upper 70s to low 80s under mostly clear skies, with light winds preventing significant drops. This aligns with the market's strong 88% implied probability on 74-75°F, reflecting trader consensus that conditions will produce a low near the upper end of recent historical values rather than the long-term average of ~73°F. Recent days of extreme heat have raised baseline temperatures, reducing the chance of sub-73°F readings to under 5% while making warmer outcomes appear improbable given current atmospheric patterns. Updated model runs and evening observations will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,689End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent southerly winds and residual heat from daytime highs exceeding 100°F have limited overnight radiative cooling across central Texas, keeping minimum temperatures in Austin elevated above seasonal norms.** Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models project the August 23 low in the upper 70s to low 80s under mostly clear skies, with light winds preventing significant drops. This aligns with the market's strong 88% implied probability on 74-75°F, reflecting trader consensus that conditions will produce a low near the upper end of recent historical values rather than the long-term average of ~73°F. Recent days of extreme heat have raised baseline temperatures, reducing the chance of sub-73°F readings to under 5% while making warmer outcomes appear improbable given current atmospheric patterns. Updated model runs and evening observations will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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