**Forecast consensus from official sources and models positions 30–31°C as the most probable maximum temperature for Incheon (Seoul’s primary reporting station) on August 24, 2026, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes.** Late-summer atmospheric conditions over the Korean Peninsula feature a weakening monsoon influence, southwesterly flow, and partly cloudy skies that support daytime heating to near or slightly above seasonal norms without strong advection of hotter air. Current observations on August 23 showed afternoon readings reaching 31–32°C at Incheon International Airport under similar partly cloudy, humid conditions (dew points near 24–25°C), providing a recent analog. Multiple forecasts, including Korean Meteorological Administration guidance and international model outputs, converge on a daytime high of 30°C with limited upward potential to 31–32°C depending on cloud breaks and wind speeds around 3–6 m/s. Scattered thunderstorm chances remain low (around 20–25%), which could cap peaks if convection develops earlier than expected, while higher humidity and light winds favor retention of heat. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow uncertainty band around the official outlook, with lower probabilities assigned to outcomes outside 29–32°C given the absence of atypical synoptic drivers or model spread in the latest runs. Newer model guidance or updated KMA briefings on the morning of August 24 will likely refine resolution odds.