Global seismicity follows a stable Gutenberg-Richter distribution, with roughly 1,300–1,900 magnitude 5.0–5.9 events and 120–150 magnitude 6+ events recorded annually by the USGS, implying a typical weekly total of 10–15 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes worldwide. Trader probabilities cluster around 7–13 because the August 15, 2026 magnitude 7.7 Flores mainshock and its 1,500+ aftershocks (including dozens above 5.0) remain elevated but are decaying; additional contributions could arise from ongoing sequences near Indonesia or unrelated events along major subduction zones. Outcomes below 7 would require rapid aftershock decay and no new magnitude 6+ mainshocks, while totals above 13 hinge on fresh large ruptures or prolonged aftershock productivity before the week closes. USGS monitoring and model updates through August 30 will refine these ranges in real time.