The 87.5% market-implied probability for no magnitude 7.0+ quake in California this year aligns with USGS seismic hazard assessments showing low single-year odds, as major events on faults like the San Andreas follow recurrence intervals of decades to centuries. Statewide models such as UCERF3 estimate M6.7+ quakes roughly once every 6 years on average, with even lower rates for M7.0+, and 2026 activity has remained limited to smaller events below M6.0 per official catalogs. A recent University of Bern study highlighting elevated stress along southern segments introduces some uncertainty around timing, yet it does not override the absence of foreshock patterns or immediate precursors that would shift annual probabilities meaningfully. Continuous USGS monitoring provides the key upcoming data points for any rapid reassessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. The 87.5% market-implied probability for no magnitude 7.0+ quake in California this year aligns with USGS seismic hazard assessments showing low single-year odds, as major events on faults like the San Andreas follow recurrence intervals of decades to centuries. Statewide models such as UCERF3 estimate M6.7+ quakes roughly once every 6 years on average, with even lower rates for M7.0+, and 2026 activity has remained limited to smaller events below M6.0 per official catalogs. A recent University of Bern study highlighting elevated stress along southern segments introduces some uncertainty around timing, yet it does not override the absence of foreshock patterns or immediate precursors that would shift annual probabilities meaningfully. Continuous USGS monitoring provides the key upcoming data points for any rapid reassessment.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$4,833End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. The 87.5% market-implied probability for no magnitude 7.0+ quake in California this year aligns with USGS seismic hazard assessments showing low single-year odds, as major events on faults like the San Andreas follow recurrence intervals of decades to centuries. Statewide models such as UCERF3 estimate M6.7+ quakes roughly once every 6 years on average, with even lower rates for M7.0+, and 2026 activity has remained limited to smaller events below M6.0 per official catalogs. A recent University of Bern study highlighting elevated stress along southern segments introduces some uncertainty around timing, yet it does not override the absence of foreshock patterns or immediate precursors that would shift annual probabilities meaningfully. Continuous USGS monitoring provides the key upcoming data points for any rapid reassessment.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Volume
$4,833End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 87.5% market-implied probability for no magnitude 7.0+ quake in California this year aligns with USGS seismic hazard assessments showing low single-year odds, as major events on faults like the San Andreas follow recurrence intervals of decades to centuries. Statewide models such as UCERF3 estimate M6.7+ quakes roughly once every 6 years on average, with even lower rates for M7.0+, and 2026 activity has remained limited to smaller events below M6.0 per official catalogs. A recent University of Bern study highlighting elevated stress along southern segments introduces some uncertainty around timing, yet it does not override the absence of foreshock patterns or immediate precursors that would shift annual probabilities meaningfully. Continuous USGS monitoring provides the key upcoming data points for any rapid reassessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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