NOAA’s updated August 2026 outlook for the Atlantic basin calls for a below-normal season with only a 5% chance of above-average activity, forecasting 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes through November 30 amid El Niño conditions that suppress intensification. As of mid-August, just two weak tropical storms have formed and zero hurricanes have developed, consistent with forecasts from Colorado State University and others showing well-below-average U.S. major-hurricane landfall probability. Category 5 landfalls remain exceptionally rare historically, with only four recorded in the continental U.S. since 1851 and none since Hurricane Michael in 2018. These factors, combined with limited remaining peak-season window and model consensus for subdued activity, underpin the market-implied 86% probability against a Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
14% chance
$139,488 Vol.
$139,488 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
14% chance
$139,488 Vol.
$139,488 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s updated August 2026 outlook for the Atlantic basin calls for a below-normal season with only a 5% chance of above-average activity, forecasting 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes through November 30 amid El Niño conditions that suppress intensification. As of mid-August, just two weak tropical storms have formed and zero hurricanes have developed, consistent with forecasts from Colorado State University and others showing well-below-average U.S. major-hurricane landfall probability. Category 5 landfalls remain exceptionally rare historically, with only four recorded in the continental U.S. since 1851 and none since Hurricane Michael in 2018. These factors, combined with limited remaining peak-season window and model consensus for subdued activity, underpin the market-implied 86% probability against a Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$139,488End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s updated August 2026 outlook for the Atlantic basin calls for a below-normal season with only a 5% chance of above-average activity, forecasting 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes through November 30 amid El Niño conditions that suppress intensification. As of mid-August, just two weak tropical storms have formed and zero hurricanes have developed, consistent with forecasts from Colorado State University and others showing well-below-average U.S. major-hurricane landfall probability. Category 5 landfalls remain exceptionally rare historically, with only four recorded in the continental U.S. since 1851 and none since Hurricane Michael in 2018. These factors, combined with limited remaining peak-season window and model consensus for subdued activity, underpin the market-implied 86% probability against a Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$139,488End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s updated August 2026 outlook for the Atlantic basin calls for a below-normal season with only a 5% chance of above-average activity, forecasting 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes through November 30 amid El Niño conditions that suppress intensification. As of mid-August, just two weak tropical storms have formed and zero hurricanes have developed, consistent with forecasts from Colorado State University and others showing well-below-average U.S. major-hurricane landfall probability. Category 5 landfalls remain exceptionally rare historically, with only four recorded in the continental U.S. since 1851 and none since Hurricane Michael in 2018. These factors, combined with limited remaining peak-season window and model consensus for subdued activity, underpin the market-implied 86% probability against a Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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