Precipitation in London in August?

<30mm 75%

60-70mm 27.0%

50-60mm 24.4%

30-40mm 22.9%

NEW

Aug 31, 2026

<30mm

$633 Vol.

72%

30-40mm

$128 Vol.

23%

40-50mm

$110 Vol.

22%

50-60mm

$116 Vol.

24%

60-70mm

$6,143 Vol.

15%

70-80mm

$133 Vol.

12%

80mm+

$301 Vol.

14%

<30mm 75%

60-70mm 27.0%

50-60mm 24.4%

30-40mm 22.9%

NEW

Aug 31, 2026

<30mm

$633 Vol.

72%

30-40mm

$128 Vol.

23%

40-50mm

$110 Vol.

22%

50-60mm

$116 Vol.

24%

60-70mm

$6,143 Vol.

15%

70-80mm

$133 Vol.

12%

80mm+

$301 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in August, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for August 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of August 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will Hong Kong have less than 425mm of precipitation in August?

57%

Will Seattle have less than 0.5 inches of precipitation in August?

85%

Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in August?

95%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Precipitation in London in August?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<30mm" at 72%, followed by "50-60mm" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 72¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Precipitation in London in August?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Precipitation in London in August?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Precipitation in London in August?" is "<30mm" at 72%, meaning the market assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "50-60mm" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Precipitation in London in August?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Precipitation in London in August?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “Precipitation in London in August?” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Precipitation in London in August?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 72¢ for "<30mm" in the "Precipitation in London in August?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 72% chance that "<30mm" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 72¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 28¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Precipitation in London in August?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Aug 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Precipitation in London in August?" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Precipitation in London in August?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Precipitation in London in August?

Precipitation in London in August?

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Frequently Asked Questions

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