Already exceeding 7 inches of rain through August 23 at Central Park—with a 2.87-inch event on August 20 alone—positions the >6" outcome as the clear market leader at 86.5% implied probability. NOAA data show the month running 3.77 inches above the 1991–2020 normal, driven by repeated thunderstorms and frontal passages that have produced above-average totals so far. Short-term NWS forecasts indicate additional chances of showers and thunderstorms through the final week, including elevated PoPs today and Friday, which could add further accumulation before month-end. While model guidance shows some day-to-day variability in exact amounts, the current surplus and active pattern leave little room for totals to fall into lower brackets. Traders are weighting the verified observational surplus and remaining wet signal heavily in current odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in NYC in August?
Precipitation in NYC in August?
4-5" 2.8%
3-4" 2.6%
5-6" <1%
2-3" <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<2"
<1%
2-3"
<1%
3-4"
3%
4-5"
3%
5-6"
8%
>6"
68%
4-5" 2.8%
3-4" 2.6%
5-6" <1%
2-3" <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<2"
$1,113 Vol.
<1%
2-3"
$454 Vol.
<1%
3-4"
$137 Vol.
3%
4-5"
$147 Vol.
3%
5-6"
$190 Vol.
8%
>6"
$433 Vol.
68%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Already exceeding 7 inches of rain through August 23 at Central Park—with a 2.87-inch event on August 20 alone—positions the >6" outcome as the clear market leader at 86.5% implied probability. NOAA data show the month running 3.77 inches above the 1991–2020 normal, driven by repeated thunderstorms and frontal passages that have produced above-average totals so far. Short-term NWS forecasts indicate additional chances of showers and thunderstorms through the final week, including elevated PoPs today and Friday, which could add further accumulation before month-end. While model guidance shows some day-to-day variability in exact amounts, the current surplus and active pattern leave little room for totals to fall into lower brackets. Traders are weighting the verified observational surplus and remaining wet signal heavily in current odds.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$2,474End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Already exceeding 7 inches of rain through August 23 at Central Park—with a 2.87-inch event on August 20 alone—positions the >6" outcome as the clear market leader at 86.5% implied probability. NOAA data show the month running 3.77 inches above the 1991–2020 normal, driven by repeated thunderstorms and frontal passages that have produced above-average totals so far. Short-term NWS forecasts indicate additional chances of showers and thunderstorms through the final week, including elevated PoPs today and Friday, which could add further accumulation before month-end. While model guidance shows some day-to-day variability in exact amounts, the current surplus and active pattern leave little room for totals to fall into lower brackets. Traders are weighting the verified observational surplus and remaining wet signal heavily in current odds.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,474End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Already exceeding 7 inches of rain through August 23 at Central Park—with a 2.87-inch event on August 20 alone—positions the >6" outcome as the clear market leader at 86.5% implied probability. NOAA data show the month running 3.77 inches above the 1991–2020 normal, driven by repeated thunderstorms and frontal passages that have produced above-average totals so far. Short-term NWS forecasts indicate additional chances of showers and thunderstorms through the final week, including elevated PoPs today and Friday, which could add further accumulation before month-end. While model guidance shows some day-to-day variability in exact amounts, the current surplus and active pattern leave little room for totals to fall into lower brackets. Traders are weighting the verified observational surplus and remaining wet signal heavily in current odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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