Recent forecast consensus from models run by agencies including AccuWeather and the Met Office shows Warsaw experiencing clear to partly cloudy overnight conditions on August 23, supporting radiative cooling to a minimum near 13 °C, consistent with the long-term August average low of 12–13 °C. Stable high pressure and light winds limit mixing and prevent colder advection, producing the 97 % market-implied probability for exactly 13 °C. Traders assign negligible odds to lower thresholds because current guidance shows no significant deviation from this baseline. A rapid increase in low-level cloud cover or an unexpected wind shift could reduce cooling and push the minimum higher, while stronger clear-sky radiational losses or a late cold-air intrusion remain the main low-probability risks that could alter the outcome before official station readings finalize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 23?
13°C 97%
12°C 3%
11°C <1%
8°C or below <1%
$3,012 Vol.
$3,012 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
97%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 97%
12°C 3%
11°C <1%
8°C or below <1%
$3,012 Vol.
$3,012 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
8°C or below
$342 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$196 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$238 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$171 Vol.
1%
12°C
$92 Vol.
3%
13°C
$467 Vol.
97%
14°C
$473 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$164 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$540 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$145 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$184 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models run by agencies including AccuWeather and the Met Office shows Warsaw experiencing clear to partly cloudy overnight conditions on August 23, supporting radiative cooling to a minimum near 13 °C, consistent with the long-term August average low of 12–13 °C. Stable high pressure and light winds limit mixing and prevent colder advection, producing the 97 % market-implied probability for exactly 13 °C. Traders assign negligible odds to lower thresholds because current guidance shows no significant deviation from this baseline. A rapid increase in low-level cloud cover or an unexpected wind shift could reduce cooling and push the minimum higher, while stronger clear-sky radiational losses or a late cold-air intrusion remain the main low-probability risks that could alter the outcome before official station readings finalize.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$3,012End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models run by agencies including AccuWeather and the Met Office shows Warsaw experiencing clear to partly cloudy overnight conditions on August 23, supporting radiative cooling to a minimum near 13 °C, consistent with the long-term August average low of 12–13 °C. Stable high pressure and light winds limit mixing and prevent colder advection, producing the 97 % market-implied probability for exactly 13 °C. Traders assign negligible odds to lower thresholds because current guidance shows no significant deviation from this baseline. A rapid increase in low-level cloud cover or an unexpected wind shift could reduce cooling and push the minimum higher, while stronger clear-sky radiational losses or a late cold-air intrusion remain the main low-probability risks that could alter the outcome before official station readings finalize.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,012End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from models run by agencies including AccuWeather and the Met Office shows Warsaw experiencing clear to partly cloudy overnight conditions on August 23, supporting radiative cooling to a minimum near 13 °C, consistent with the long-term August average low of 12–13 °C. Stable high pressure and light winds limit mixing and prevent colder advection, producing the 97 % market-implied probability for exactly 13 °C. Traders assign negligible odds to lower thresholds because current guidance shows no significant deviation from this baseline. A rapid increase in low-level cloud cover or an unexpected wind shift could reduce cooling and push the minimum higher, while stronger clear-sky radiational losses or a late cold-air intrusion remain the main low-probability risks that could alter the outcome before official station readings finalize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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