Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to light southwesterly winds and partly to mostly clear overnight skies over Warsaw, enabling strong radiative cooling that supports minimum temperatures near 11–13 °C. Lower dew points and reduced cloud cover enhance surface heat loss, while any increase in low-level moisture or wind would limit the drop. Ensemble spreads still allow for colder outcomes if high pressure strengthens or northerly flow advects cooler air, keeping 7 °C or below as the leading market-implied outcome at 34 %. Fresh 00z and 12z model updates tomorrow morning, along with local Polish Institute of Meteorology observations, will further narrow the range ahead of the 24 August minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 24?
11°C 37%
10°C 36%
12°C 19%
13°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
7°C or below
-
8°C
9%
9°C
16%
10°C
21%
11°C
33%
12°C
19%
13°C
19%
14°C
1%
15°C
4%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
1%
11°C 37%
10°C 36%
12°C 19%
13°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
7°C or below
$74 Vol.
-
8°C
$45 Vol.
9%
9°C
$28 Vol.
16%
10°C
$4 Vol.
21%
11°C
$5 Vol.
33%
12°C
$0 Vol.
19%
13°C
$0 Vol.
19%
14°C
$20 Vol.
1%
15°C
$61 Vol.
4%
16°C
$285 Vol.
1%
17°C or higher
$63 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to light southwesterly winds and partly to mostly clear overnight skies over Warsaw, enabling strong radiative cooling that supports minimum temperatures near 11–13 °C. Lower dew points and reduced cloud cover enhance surface heat loss, while any increase in low-level moisture or wind would limit the drop. Ensemble spreads still allow for colder outcomes if high pressure strengthens or northerly flow advects cooler air, keeping 7 °C or below as the leading market-implied outcome at 34 %. Fresh 00z and 12z model updates tomorrow morning, along with local Polish Institute of Meteorology observations, will further narrow the range ahead of the 24 August minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ET
Volume
$586End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to light southwesterly winds and partly to mostly clear overnight skies over Warsaw, enabling strong radiative cooling that supports minimum temperatures near 11–13 °C. Lower dew points and reduced cloud cover enhance surface heat loss, while any increase in low-level moisture or wind would limit the drop. Ensemble spreads still allow for colder outcomes if high pressure strengthens or northerly flow advects cooler air, keeping 7 °C or below as the leading market-implied outcome at 34 %. Fresh 00z and 12z model updates tomorrow morning, along with local Polish Institute of Meteorology observations, will further narrow the range ahead of the 24 August minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$586End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to light southwesterly winds and partly to mostly clear overnight skies over Warsaw, enabling strong radiative cooling that supports minimum temperatures near 11–13 °C. Lower dew points and reduced cloud cover enhance surface heat loss, while any increase in low-level moisture or wind would limit the drop. Ensemble spreads still allow for colder outcomes if high pressure strengthens or northerly flow advects cooler air, keeping 7 °C or below as the leading market-implied outcome at 34 %. Fresh 00z and 12z model updates tomorrow morning, along with local Polish Institute of Meteorology observations, will further narrow the range ahead of the 24 August minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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