Persistent heat across the Sichuan Basin, driven by lingering subtropical high pressure and high humidity, keeps overnight lows in the mid-20s Celsius for Chengdu, while scattered afternoon convection from monsoon moisture introduces variability in radiative cooling. Official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory project daily minima near 23–25°C for August 25, with cloud cover and potential rain-cooled downdrafts limiting drops below 23°C yet unlikely to sustain values at or above 30°C. Model consensus shows modest diurnal ranges amid 70–80% humidity, but small shifts in steering winds or timing of thunderstorms could tip the minimum by 2–3°C either way, explaining the tight market balance between warmer and cooler bins. Updated guidance ahead of the 25th will clarify any strengthening outflow boundaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
30°C or higher 81%
20°C or below 75%
26°C 29%
25°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
75%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
25%
24°C
26%
25°C
28%
26°C
29%
27°C
28%
28°C
24%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
81%
30°C or higher 81%
20°C or below 75%
26°C 29%
25°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
$145 Vol.
75%
21°C
$145 Vol.
1%
22°C
$80 Vol.
2%
23°C
$0 Vol.
25%
24°C
$0 Vol.
26%
25°C
$0 Vol.
28%
26°C
$0 Vol.
29%
27°C
$0 Vol.
28%
28°C
$0 Vol.
24%
29°C
$5 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$70 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heat across the Sichuan Basin, driven by lingering subtropical high pressure and high humidity, keeps overnight lows in the mid-20s Celsius for Chengdu, while scattered afternoon convection from monsoon moisture introduces variability in radiative cooling. Official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory project daily minima near 23–25°C for August 25, with cloud cover and potential rain-cooled downdrafts limiting drops below 23°C yet unlikely to sustain values at or above 30°C. Model consensus shows modest diurnal ranges amid 70–80% humidity, but small shifts in steering winds or timing of thunderstorms could tip the minimum by 2–3°C either way, explaining the tight market balance between warmer and cooler bins. Updated guidance ahead of the 25th will clarify any strengthening outflow boundaries.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$445End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heat across the Sichuan Basin, driven by lingering subtropical high pressure and high humidity, keeps overnight lows in the mid-20s Celsius for Chengdu, while scattered afternoon convection from monsoon moisture introduces variability in radiative cooling. Official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory project daily minima near 23–25°C for August 25, with cloud cover and potential rain-cooled downdrafts limiting drops below 23°C yet unlikely to sustain values at or above 30°C. Model consensus shows modest diurnal ranges amid 70–80% humidity, but small shifts in steering winds or timing of thunderstorms could tip the minimum by 2–3°C either way, explaining the tight market balance between warmer and cooler bins. Updated guidance ahead of the 25th will clarify any strengthening outflow boundaries.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$445End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent heat across the Sichuan Basin, driven by lingering subtropical high pressure and high humidity, keeps overnight lows in the mid-20s Celsius for Chengdu, while scattered afternoon convection from monsoon moisture introduces variability in radiative cooling. Official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory project daily minima near 23–25°C for August 25, with cloud cover and potential rain-cooled downdrafts limiting drops below 23°C yet unlikely to sustain values at or above 30°C. Model consensus shows modest diurnal ranges amid 70–80% humidity, but small shifts in steering winds or timing of thunderstorms could tip the minimum by 2–3°C either way, explaining the tight market balance between warmer and cooler bins. Updated guidance ahead of the 25th will clarify any strengthening outflow boundaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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