Official forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office project an overnight minimum near 11–12°C for Amsterdam on August 23, 2026, under stable high-pressure conditions with light northwesterly flow and limited cloud cover. This consensus aligns closely with late-summer climatology, where average lows typically reach 12–14°C amid moderating Atlantic influences. Real-time observations show daytime readings around 17–19°C, with gradual evening cooling toward the expected minimum. The overwhelming 98% market-implied probability for 12°C reflects this tight scientific agreement, though modest forecast revisions from updated model runs or shifts in cloud cover could still nudge the final recorded low slightly outside the narrow window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 23?
12°C 98%
11°C 3%
10°C <1%
8°C or below <1%
$5,612 Vol.
$5,612 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
3%
12°C
98%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
12°C 98%
11°C 3%
10°C <1%
8°C or below <1%
$5,612 Vol.
$5,612 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
8°C or below
$377 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$478 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,091 Vol.
1%
11°C
$437 Vol.
3%
12°C
$575 Vol.
98%
13°C
$397 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$586 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$530 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$449 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$322 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$367 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office project an overnight minimum near 11–12°C for Amsterdam on August 23, 2026, under stable high-pressure conditions with light northwesterly flow and limited cloud cover. This consensus aligns closely with late-summer climatology, where average lows typically reach 12–14°C amid moderating Atlantic influences. Real-time observations show daytime readings around 17–19°C, with gradual evening cooling toward the expected minimum. The overwhelming 98% market-implied probability for 12°C reflects this tight scientific agreement, though modest forecast revisions from updated model runs or shifts in cloud cover could still nudge the final recorded low slightly outside the narrow window.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$5,612End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office project an overnight minimum near 11–12°C for Amsterdam on August 23, 2026, under stable high-pressure conditions with light northwesterly flow and limited cloud cover. This consensus aligns closely with late-summer climatology, where average lows typically reach 12–14°C amid moderating Atlantic influences. Real-time observations show daytime readings around 17–19°C, with gradual evening cooling toward the expected minimum. The overwhelming 98% market-implied probability for 12°C reflects this tight scientific agreement, though modest forecast revisions from updated model runs or shifts in cloud cover could still nudge the final recorded low slightly outside the narrow window.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,612End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office project an overnight minimum near 11–12°C for Amsterdam on August 23, 2026, under stable high-pressure conditions with light northwesterly flow and limited cloud cover. This consensus aligns closely with late-summer climatology, where average lows typically reach 12–14°C amid moderating Atlantic influences. Real-time observations show daytime readings around 17–19°C, with gradual evening cooling toward the expected minimum. The overwhelming 98% market-implied probability for 12°C reflects this tight scientific agreement, though modest forecast revisions from updated model runs or shifts in cloud cover could still nudge the final recorded low slightly outside the narrow window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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