Forecasts from sources including the Met Office, BBC, and timeanddate.com indicate Amsterdam's overnight low on August 25 will likely fall between 12–15°C, driven by moderate easterly winds, limited cloud cover overnight, and radiative cooling under clearing skies that allow surface heat loss. Model consensus shows modest variability in exact minimum timing and strength, with urban heat-island effects and precise wind speeds differentiating outcomes near 11–13°C from slightly warmer readings. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 11–13°C because recent ensemble runs favor stronger nocturnal cooling than seasonal averages, though small shifts in cloud timing or wind could push the low above 14°C or below 10°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these narrow ranges ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 25?
9°C or below 65%
19°C or higher 64%
11°C 39%
13°C 35%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
9°C or below
65%
10°C
9%
11°C
39%
12°C
34%
13°C
35%
14°C
27%
15°C
30%
16°C
10%
17°C
13%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
64%
9°C or below 65%
19°C or higher 64%
11°C 39%
13°C 35%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
9°C or below
$65 Vol.
65%
10°C
$150 Vol.
9%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
34%
13°C
$0 Vol.
35%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
30%
16°C
$0 Vol.
10%
17°C
$112 Vol.
13%
18°C
$622 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$145 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from sources including the Met Office, BBC, and timeanddate.com indicate Amsterdam's overnight low on August 25 will likely fall between 12–15°C, driven by moderate easterly winds, limited cloud cover overnight, and radiative cooling under clearing skies that allow surface heat loss. Model consensus shows modest variability in exact minimum timing and strength, with urban heat-island effects and precise wind speeds differentiating outcomes near 11–13°C from slightly warmer readings. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 11–13°C because recent ensemble runs favor stronger nocturnal cooling than seasonal averages, though small shifts in cloud timing or wind could push the low above 14°C or below 10°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these narrow ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$1,094End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from sources including the Met Office, BBC, and timeanddate.com indicate Amsterdam's overnight low on August 25 will likely fall between 12–15°C, driven by moderate easterly winds, limited cloud cover overnight, and radiative cooling under clearing skies that allow surface heat loss. Model consensus shows modest variability in exact minimum timing and strength, with urban heat-island effects and precise wind speeds differentiating outcomes near 11–13°C from slightly warmer readings. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 11–13°C because recent ensemble runs favor stronger nocturnal cooling than seasonal averages, though small shifts in cloud timing or wind could push the low above 14°C or below 10°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these narrow ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,094End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from sources including the Met Office, BBC, and timeanddate.com indicate Amsterdam's overnight low on August 25 will likely fall between 12–15°C, driven by moderate easterly winds, limited cloud cover overnight, and radiative cooling under clearing skies that allow surface heat loss. Model consensus shows modest variability in exact minimum timing and strength, with urban heat-island effects and precise wind speeds differentiating outcomes near 11–13°C from slightly warmer readings. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 11–13°C because recent ensemble runs favor stronger nocturnal cooling than seasonal averages, though small shifts in cloud timing or wind could push the low above 14°C or below 10°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these narrow ranges ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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