Recent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon is the dominant driver keeping implied probabilities clustered around 24–28°C for Manila’s August 24 minimum, with official PAGASA guidance showing a 25°C overnight low amid 40–80% rain chances and persistent cloud cover. Enhanced moisture and cloudiness limit nocturnal radiative cooling while moderate winds and high humidity maintain temperatures near the seasonal 24–26°C baseline. Model consensus on monsoon strength and any embedded convective cells will determine whether the minimum settles near the lower (clearer, drier) or upper (more persistent rain) end of the tightly bunched range, with traders weighting the next 24-hour forecast updates from PAGASA and regional ensembles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 24?
24°C 31%
25°C 31%
26°C 31%
27°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
4%
23°C
26%
24°C
31%
25°C
31%
26°C
31%
27°C
31%
28°C
31%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
24°C 31%
25°C 31%
26°C 31%
27°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
21°C or below
$246 Vol.
1%
22°C
$145 Vol.
4%
23°C
$36 Vol.
26%
24°C
$0 Vol.
31%
25°C
$0 Vol.
31%
26°C
$0 Vol.
31%
27°C
$0 Vol.
31%
28°C
$0 Vol.
31%
29°C
$556 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$439 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$312 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon is the dominant driver keeping implied probabilities clustered around 24–28°C for Manila’s August 24 minimum, with official PAGASA guidance showing a 25°C overnight low amid 40–80% rain chances and persistent cloud cover. Enhanced moisture and cloudiness limit nocturnal radiative cooling while moderate winds and high humidity maintain temperatures near the seasonal 24–26°C baseline. Model consensus on monsoon strength and any embedded convective cells will determine whether the minimum settles near the lower (clearer, drier) or upper (more persistent rain) end of the tightly bunched range, with traders weighting the next 24-hour forecast updates from PAGASA and regional ensembles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$1,734End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon is the dominant driver keeping implied probabilities clustered around 24–28°C for Manila’s August 24 minimum, with official PAGASA guidance showing a 25°C overnight low amid 40–80% rain chances and persistent cloud cover. Enhanced moisture and cloudiness limit nocturnal radiative cooling while moderate winds and high humidity maintain temperatures near the seasonal 24–26°C baseline. Model consensus on monsoon strength and any embedded convective cells will determine whether the minimum settles near the lower (clearer, drier) or upper (more persistent rain) end of the tightly bunched range, with traders weighting the next 24-hour forecast updates from PAGASA and regional ensembles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,734End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon is the dominant driver keeping implied probabilities clustered around 24–28°C for Manila’s August 24 minimum, with official PAGASA guidance showing a 25°C overnight low amid 40–80% rain chances and persistent cloud cover. Enhanced moisture and cloudiness limit nocturnal radiative cooling while moderate winds and high humidity maintain temperatures near the seasonal 24–26°C baseline. Model consensus on monsoon strength and any embedded convective cells will determine whether the minimum settles near the lower (clearer, drier) or upper (more persistent rain) end of the tightly bunched range, with traders weighting the next 24-hour forecast updates from PAGASA and regional ensembles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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