**Ongoing southwest monsoon activity across Luzon drives the closely matched market-implied odds for Manila’s August 25 minimum temperature.** Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms, with moderate to occasionally strong southwesterly winds, are expected to produce variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling while also potentially enhancing evaporative effects from precipitation. Official forecasts from PAGASA and global models point to overnight lows near 25–27 °C, consistent with August climatology of roughly 25–26 °C. However, differences in model timing and intensity of monsoon surges create uncertainty around whether enhanced cloudiness will hold minima above 28 °C or clearer breaks allow brief drops toward 23–24 °C. Traders appear to weigh these short-term convective and radiative processes against historical rarity of extremes outside the 24–28 °C envelope.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 25?
21°C or below 82%
31°C or higher 82%
28°C 50%
26°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
82%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
27%
25°C
29%
26°C
29%
27°C
29%
28°C
50%
29°C
8%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
82%
21°C or below 82%
31°C or higher 82%
28°C 50%
26°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
$145 Vol.
82%
22°C
$145 Vol.
1%
23°C
$69 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
27%
25°C
$0 Vol.
29%
26°C
$0 Vol.
29%
27°C
$0 Vol.
29%
28°C
$5 Vol.
50%
29°C
$67 Vol.
8%
30°C
$5 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$145 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Ongoing southwest monsoon activity across Luzon drives the closely matched market-implied odds for Manila’s August 25 minimum temperature.** Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms, with moderate to occasionally strong southwesterly winds, are expected to produce variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling while also potentially enhancing evaporative effects from precipitation. Official forecasts from PAGASA and global models point to overnight lows near 25–27 °C, consistent with August climatology of roughly 25–26 °C. However, differences in model timing and intensity of monsoon surges create uncertainty around whether enhanced cloudiness will hold minima above 28 °C or clearer breaks allow brief drops toward 23–24 °C. Traders appear to weigh these short-term convective and radiative processes against historical rarity of extremes outside the 24–28 °C envelope.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$581End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Ongoing southwest monsoon activity across Luzon drives the closely matched market-implied odds for Manila’s August 25 minimum temperature.** Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms, with moderate to occasionally strong southwesterly winds, are expected to produce variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling while also potentially enhancing evaporative effects from precipitation. Official forecasts from PAGASA and global models point to overnight lows near 25–27 °C, consistent with August climatology of roughly 25–26 °C. However, differences in model timing and intensity of monsoon surges create uncertainty around whether enhanced cloudiness will hold minima above 28 °C or clearer breaks allow brief drops toward 23–24 °C. Traders appear to weigh these short-term convective and radiative processes against historical rarity of extremes outside the 24–28 °C envelope.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$581End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing southwest monsoon activity across Luzon drives the closely matched market-implied odds for Manila’s August 25 minimum temperature.** Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms, with moderate to occasionally strong southwesterly winds, are expected to produce variable cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling while also potentially enhancing evaporative effects from precipitation. Official forecasts from PAGASA and global models point to overnight lows near 25–27 °C, consistent with August climatology of roughly 25–26 °C. However, differences in model timing and intensity of monsoon surges create uncertainty around whether enhanced cloudiness will hold minima above 28 °C or clearer breaks allow brief drops toward 23–24 °C. Traders appear to weigh these short-term convective and radiative processes against historical rarity of extremes outside the 24–28 °C envelope.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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