Mount Vesuvius remains in a prolonged quiescent state with green alert status from the INGV Vesuvius Observatory through mid-2026, showing only baseline fumarolic degassing, low-magnitude seismicity under 2.5, and no detectable ground deformation or magma ascent signals. This aligns with the volcano’s typical multi-decade repose intervals since the 1944 VEI 3 eruption, during which VEI 1+ events have historically required clear precursory escalation absent here. With roughly four months left in 2026 and continuous 24-hour monitoring confirming stable conditions, traders assign 95% probability to “No.” A sudden shift would demand rapid, undetected unrest capable of breaching the surface by year-end—an outcome constrained by the current lack of geochemical or seismic anomalies.