Traders assign an 86.5% implied probability to “No” primarily because X continues operating across the EU under the Digital Services Act despite a €120 million fine in December 2025 for blue-check verification and transparency shortfalls. X paid the penalty and has pursued appeals while maintaining basic DSA compliance through content-removal channels and researcher data access. Escalation to a full national ban remains a last-resort remedy requiring repeated, uncorrected violations; no EU member state has reached that threshold in the past eight months. Near-term catalysts such as ongoing Grok AI probes or additional penalties could tighten scrutiny, yet the compressed timeline to year-end and X’s demonstrated willingness to adjust platform policies support the strong market consensus against an outright prohibition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated14% chance
$13,336 Vol.
$13,336 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
14% chance
$13,336 Vol.
$13,336 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 86.5% implied probability to “No” primarily because X continues operating across the EU under the Digital Services Act despite a €120 million fine in December 2025 for blue-check verification and transparency shortfalls. X paid the penalty and has pursued appeals while maintaining basic DSA compliance through content-removal channels and researcher data access. Escalation to a full national ban remains a last-resort remedy requiring repeated, uncorrected violations; no EU member state has reached that threshold in the past eight months. Near-term catalysts such as ongoing Grok AI probes or additional penalties could tighten scrutiny, yet the compressed timeline to year-end and X’s demonstrated willingness to adjust platform policies support the strong market consensus against an outright prohibition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ET
Volume
$13,336End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 86.5% implied probability to “No” primarily because X continues operating across the EU under the Digital Services Act despite a €120 million fine in December 2025 for blue-check verification and transparency shortfalls. X paid the penalty and has pursued appeals while maintaining basic DSA compliance through content-removal channels and researcher data access. Escalation to a full national ban remains a last-resort remedy requiring repeated, uncorrected violations; no EU member state has reached that threshold in the past eight months. Near-term catalysts such as ongoing Grok AI probes or additional penalties could tighten scrutiny, yet the compressed timeline to year-end and X’s demonstrated willingness to adjust platform policies support the strong market consensus against an outright prohibition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$13,336End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 86.5% implied probability to “No” primarily because X continues operating across the EU under the Digital Services Act despite a €120 million fine in December 2025 for blue-check verification and transparency shortfalls. X paid the penalty and has pursued appeals while maintaining basic DSA compliance through content-removal channels and researcher data access. Escalation to a full national ban remains a last-resort remedy requiring repeated, uncorrected violations; no EU member state has reached that threshold in the past eight months. Near-term catalysts such as ongoing Grok AI probes or additional penalties could tighten scrutiny, yet the compressed timeline to year-end and X’s demonstrated willingness to adjust platform policies support the strong market consensus against an outright prohibition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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