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icon for António Guterres out by December 31?
Geopolitics·UN

António Guterres out by December 31?

icon for António Guterres out by December 31?
Geopolitics·UN

António Guterres out by December 31?

21% chance
Polymarket
NEW
21% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.António Guterres is serving his second five-year term as United Nations Secretary-General, which concludes on 31 December 2026 under established term limits. The formal selection process for his successor is already underway, with the Security Council conducting informal straw polls and member states advancing candidates through official nominations and interactive dialogues. No verified statements, institutional actions, or diplomatic pressures indicate an early resignation or removal before term end. Guterres continues to issue public addresses on global issues and fulfill official duties into mid-2026. Trader consensus reflected in the 79.5% probability for “No” aligns with the predictable timeline for transition to a new Secretary-General in January 2027, absent any sudden political or procedural disruption.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,213
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.António Guterres is serving his second five-year term as United Nations Secretary-General, which concludes on 31 December 2026 under established term limits. The formal selection process for his successor is already underway, with the Security Council conducting informal straw polls and member states advancing candidates through official nominations and interactive dialogues. No verified statements, institutional actions, or diplomatic pressures indicate an early resignation or removal before term end. Guterres continues to issue public addresses on global issues and fulfill official duties into mid-2026. Trader consensus reflected in the 79.5% probability for “No” aligns with the predictable timeline for transition to a new Secretary-General in January 2027, absent any sudden political or procedural disruption.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,213
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"António Guterres out by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 21% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 21¢, the market collectively assigns a 21% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"António Guterres out by December 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "António Guterres out by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "António Guterres out by December 31?" is 21% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 21% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "António Guterres out by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.